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feat: use USD/Bcycle for market reward inputs #21

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Merged
mintybasil merged 1 commit into from
Mar 30, 2026
Merged

feat: use USD/Bcycle for market reward inputs #21

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17 changes: 9 additions & 8 deletions boundless_profitability.ipynb
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -57,11 +57,11 @@
"\n",
"**This value will vary depending on the prover. To calculate the utilization for a specific prover, see [zerokrab/boundless-market-util](https://github.com/zerokrab/boundless-market-util).**\n",
"\n",
"`MARKET_REWARD_USD_PER_MHZ`\n",
"`MARKET_REWARD_USD_PER_BCYCLE`\n",
"\n",
"An array of potential market order prices (USD/Mhz) to be modelled.\n",
"An array of potential market order prices (USD/Bcycle) to be modelled.\n",
"\n",
"Can be estimated from [market stats](https://explorer.boundless.network/stats), (see \"Lock price per cycle distribution\"). You can divide USD/Bcycle by 1000 to get USD/Mhz.\n",
"Can be estimated from [market stats](https://explorer.boundless.network/stats), (see \"Lock price per cycle distribution\").\n",
"\n",
"`FIXED_COST_MONTHLY_USD`\n",
"\n",
Expand All @@ -88,7 +88,7 @@
"MARKET_ORDER_UTIL = 0.5\n",
"\n",
"# Average reward per million cycles in USD (range of scenarios)\n",
"MARKET_REWARD_USD_PER_MHZ = [0.00003, 0.00005, 0.00007, 0.0001]\n",
"MARKET_REWARD_USD_PER_BCYCLE = [0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.1]\n",
"\n",
"# Fixed cost additional expenses\n",
"FIXED_COST_MONTHLY_USD = 0\n",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -228,7 +228,7 @@
"source": [
"## 2. Compute Cost, Revenue, Profit\n",
"\n",
"**Profit per epoch** = total revenue − total cost (GPU + fixed)."
"**Profit per epoch** = total revenue \u2212 total cost (GPU + fixed)."
]
},
{
Expand All @@ -243,8 +243,9 @@
" scenario = row[\"label\"]\n",
" for zkc_price in ZKC_PRICES_USD:\n",
" povw_revenue = mhz_per_epoch * POVW_ZKC_PER_MHZ_PER_EPOCH * zkc_price\n",
" for market_reward in MARKET_REWARD_USD_PER_MHZ:\n",
" market_revenue = mhz_per_epoch * market_reward * MARKET_ORDER_UTIL\n",
" for market_reward_bcycle in MARKET_REWARD_USD_PER_BCYCLE:\n",
" market_reward_mhz = market_reward_bcycle / 1000\n",
" market_revenue = mhz_per_epoch * market_reward_mhz * MARKET_ORDER_UTIL\n",
" total_revenue = povw_revenue + market_revenue\n",
" profit = total_revenue - total_cost_epoch\n",
" results.append({\n",
Expand All @@ -253,7 +254,7 @@
" \"num_gpus\": row[\"num_gpus\"],\n",
" \"zkc_price_usd\": zkc_price,\n",
" \"market_order_util\": MARKET_ORDER_UTIL,\n",
" \"market_reward_usd_per_mhz\": market_reward,\n",
" \"market_reward_usd_per_mhz\": market_reward_mhz,\n",
" \"mhz_per_epoch\": mhz_per_epoch,\n",
" \"cost_per_epoch\": total_cost_epoch,\n",
" \"povw_revenue\": povw_revenue,\n",
Expand Down
10 changes: 6 additions & 4 deletions dashboard.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -42,8 +42,8 @@ def build_dashboard(df: pd.DataFrame | None = None) -> pn.viewable.Viewable:
name="ZKC Price (USD)", options=zkc_prices, value=zkc_prices[len(zkc_prices) // 2]
)
reward_slider = pn.widgets.FloatSlider(
name="Market Reward (USD/MHz)", start=0.00001, end=0.0002, step=0.00001, value=0.00007,
format="0.00000",
name="Market Reward (USD/Bcycle)", start=0.01, end=0.2, step=0.01, value=0.07,
format="0.00",
)

# ── Tab 1: Profit Explorer ────────────────────────────────────────────────
Expand All @@ -53,7 +53,8 @@ def profit_chart(zkc_price, market_reward):
# Base rows at the reference reward; scale market_revenue linearly to market_reward.
# market_revenue ∝ reward (mhz * reward * util), so scaling is exact.
sub = df[(df["zkc_price_usd"] == zkc_price) & (df["market_reward_usd_per_mhz"] == ref_reward)]
scale = market_reward / ref_reward if ref_reward > 0 else 0
market_reward_mhz = market_reward / 1000
scale = market_reward_mhz / ref_reward if ref_reward > 0 else 0

labels = sub["label"].tolist()
costs = sub["cost_per_epoch"].tolist()
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -96,7 +97,8 @@ def profit_chart(zkc_price, market_reward):
@pn.depends(reward_slider)
def breakeven_chart(market_reward):
# Scale market_revenue to the chosen reward, then find min profitable ZKC price
scale = market_reward / ref_reward if ref_reward > 0 else 0
market_reward_mhz = market_reward / 1000
scale = market_reward_mhz / ref_reward if ref_reward > 0 else 0
sub = df[df["market_reward_usd_per_mhz"] == ref_reward].copy()
sub = sub.assign(
market_revenue_scaled=sub["market_revenue"] * scale,
Expand Down
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