docs: incorporate Lane A calibration decisions

PLAN.md

@@ -40,8 +40,12 @@ every commit is world-readable and every merge to `main` is a publication act.
 - The calibration protocol family now has separate E4 grader-validation, E1
   Lane A A/A session-position, and E2 operating-characteristic candidate SAPs.
   They are not preregistered, authorize no observations, and select no powered
-  method. Their counts, thresholds, grids, and consequences remain review
-  candidates until separately frozen and registered.
+  method. The 2026-07-17 design decisions are incorporated: E1 uses 120
+  cross-arm pairs with conservative stage-localized falsification, E4 certifies
+  overall adjudicated-positive/negative populations under asymmetric thresholds,
+  and E2 uses rule-relative nuisance control with exact or simultaneous-bound
+  admission. Exact corpus strata, immutable implementations, schemas, and other
+  named freeze inputs remain registration blockers.
 - Contract B `2.0.0-draft.1` is an immutable, repository-only normative draft
   beside v1. It binds synthetic registration, reveal, schedule, attempts,
   attrition, copied observation provenance, analysis, decision, and report

README.md

@@ -110,6 +110,10 @@ Neither is a current statistical result. The smoke artifact retains summary valu
 raw per-attempt outcomes needed for independent interval recomputation. Their recorded values are
 historical artifacts, not evidence for model selection.
 
+The candidate calibration family incorporates the 2026-07-17 statistical design decisions but is
+still unregistered and non-authorizing. Its remaining freeze fields and operational prerequisites
+must be completed outside any observation before a study can begin.
+
 ### Verify locally
 
 Install the exact Quarto release named in `.quarto-version` (on macOS,

STATUS.md

@@ -16,10 +16,10 @@ ready for a powered scientific promotion decision or production use.
 
 | Item | Evidence | Status |
 |---|---|---|
-| Public site | Render run `29614595319` and Pages run `29614595347` passed for current published baseline `6aabf7f` | published |
+| Public site | Render run `29657510137` and Pages run `29657510147` passed for current published baseline `5423caa` | published |
 | Core version | `pyproject.toml` and frozen core identify `0.2.0`; wheel containment is tested | repository-versioned, not distributed — the version names code in this repository, not a release anyone can install from a registry |
 | Experimental calculations | Committed synthetic results regenerate byte-for-byte | decision input only — the numbers inform, but do not make, the pending method decision |
-| Calibration SAP family | Separate E4, E1, and E2 candidate protocols define reviewable objectives, counts, failure rules, and claim boundaries | not preregistered; no observations authorized; numerical choices remain candidates |
+| Calibration SAP family | Separate E4, E1, and E2 candidate protocols incorporate the 2026-07-17 statistical decisions and retain explicit freeze blockers | not preregistered; no observations authorized; exact corpus strata, implementations, schemas, and operational bindings remain incomplete |
 | Contract B v2 draft | Exact schema, verifier, renderer, safety scanner, fixture, report, and delivery manifest are digest-bound (every implementation byte is hash-pinned) | synthetic conformance only — the draft evidence contract is validated against invented data, not real campaigns |
 | Independent refusal | The public verifier derives `NOT_EVALUABLE` from the synthetic fixture and rejects mutations — it recomputes the result from frozen evidence bytes and refuses any altered copy | verified for the fixture |
 | Publication scanning | Evidence inputs are recursively scanned in the parameterized report path; Contract B checks its bound public payload separately | path-scoped; no whole-repository scan — leak scanning covers the report inputs, not every file in the repository |
@@ -73,5 +73,5 @@ conformance vector are unchanged.
 
 ## Provenance
 
-- Status date: 2026-07-17
-- Baseline reviewed for this candidate update: `6aabf7f32e3d824ee63f2eef3a761f29be4e2d4c`
+- Status date: 2026-07-18
+- Baseline reviewed for this candidate update: `5423caa370664f1e34101e8e812397f6a9608e1a`

docs/preregistrations/calibration-sap.md

@@ -2,43 +2,59 @@
 
 ## Metadata
 
-- **Date:** 2026-07-17
-- **Version:** 1.1.0-candidate.1
-- **Status:** Candidate protocol — not preregistered; no observations authorized.
+- **Decision date:** 2026-07-17
+- **Last updated:** 2026-07-18
+- **Version:** 1.2.0-candidate.2
+- **Status:** Candidate protocol — design decisions incorporated; not preregistered; no observations authorized.
 
 ## Purpose
 
-This document is the index and common claim boundary for three separate candidate statistical
+This document is the index and common public claim boundary for three separate statistical
 analysis plans:
 
 1. [E4 grader validation](e4-grader-validation-sap.md)
 2. [E1 Lane A A/A session-position study](e1-lane-a-aa-sap.md)
 3. [E2 operating-characteristics simulation](e2-operating-characteristics-sap.md)
 
-The former umbrella draft combined three different studies and incorrectly described the E1
-objective as estimation of within-session correlation. The replacement family uses Lane A `m = 1`
-by construction: one task pair per fresh session. E1 is therefore a determinism/falsification study,
-not a correlation-estimation study.
+Lane A uses `m = 1` by construction: one task pair per fresh session. E1 is therefore an
+exact-identity falsification study, not a correlation-estimation study. E4 validates the grader
+against independently adjudicated human labels. E2 evaluates candidate decision rules and later
+inherits accepted E4 and E1 inputs for sensitivity analysis.
 
-## Common rules
+## Common public rules
 
 - E4, E1, and E2 require separate reviewed registrations and separate result artifacts.
-- Planned values in these documents are design candidates, not produced observations.
-- Every initiated E1 attempt is retained as exactly one terminal attempt row. Failure, timeout,
-  resource exhaustion, receipt failure, and harness failure are outcomes; none is silently dropped.
-- No whole-attempt automatic retry is allowed. A separately authorized rerun must use a new attempt
-  ordinal and a new registration rather than replacing the original record.
-- Each gateway call has a planned provider retry limit of zero. A client invocation may contain
-  multiple disclosed calls; all calls must be included in its closure record.
-- No fallback model, direct provider path, or unregistered schedule substitution is allowed.
-- A missing registration, byte binding, assignment row, owner receipt, invocation closure, terminal
-  attempt row, or required analysis artifact makes the affected study `NOT_EVALUABLE`.
+- Values in these documents are frozen design inputs only after their remaining named fields are
+  completed and registered. They are not produced observations.
+- Every initiated attempt is retained as exactly one terminal attempt row. Failure, timeout,
+  resource exhaustion, provenance failure, and harness failure are outcomes; none is silently
+  dropped.
+- No whole-attempt automatic retry is allowed. A separately authorized rerun uses a new attempt
+  ordinal under a new registration rather than replacing the original record.
+- No unregistered schedule, rule, corpus, or serving-profile substitution is allowed.
+- A missing registration, byte binding, assignment row, required provenance record, terminal row,
+  or analysis artifact makes the affected study `NOT_EVALUABLE`.
+- Every study binds one versioned serving-profile digest. Public analysis treats that profile as an
+  opaque registered input; deployment-specific values, credentials, and authority remain outside
+  this public methodology.
 - Calibration results cannot promote a system, select a powered method, or settle a minimum
   practically important benefit. Those require a later coupled ruling and a new protocol.
 
+## Dependency order and phasing
+
+E4 and E1 may proceed independently after their own registrations. E2 has two phases:
+
+1. the base operating-characteristics grid uses frozen synthetic distributions and may execute
+   without E4 or E1 observations; and
+2. grader-error and apparatus-sensitivity cells execute only after accepted E4 and E1 result
+   packets exist.
+
+The sensitivity transformation and input schema must be frozen before the E4/E1 results are
+observed. This prevents later results from tuning the sensitivity analysis.
+
 ## Current readiness
 
-These documents are reviewable design inputs only. Before any study can be registered, reviewers
-must resolve the candidate decisions called out in each SAP, freeze the machine-readable inputs and
-implementations by digest, approve the evidence/report contracts, and establish operational
-registration and observation authority.
+The statistical decisions from the 2026-07-17 review are incorporated below, but the family is not
+registered. Registration remains blocked on the incomplete E4 corpus-stratum fields, exact
+machine-readable artifacts and implementations, reviewed evidence/report schemas, and separately
+established operational authority. Nothing in this public family authorizes execution.