EARLY, NOT WRONG

Being early feels like being wrong. Until it doesn't.

An autonomous trading agent whose entire decision history is publicly verifiable. It buys quality assets during fear (never chases strength), holds through ordinary drawdown by design, and publishes every decision — entries, exits, losses included — to an on-chain record that anyone, human or AI agent, can audit or pay to query.

Under the hood: trades execute self-custody on BNB Smart Chain; the decision record anchors to two settlement chains (Mantle ERC-8004 + Casper Odra); and other agents query it via Model Context Protocol with x402 micropayments on Casper, or through the CROO Agent Protocol (CAP) with USDC settlement on Base.

CMC Agent Hub ─► Conviction Engine ─► Risk Guardrails ─► TWAK Execution ─► Anchor Layer
   (data)         (6-factor contrarian)    (filters)       (BSC swaps)       ├─► Mantle (ERC-8004)
                                                                             └─► Casper (Odra)
                                                                                    │
                                                                          ┌─────────┴─────────────────────┐
                                                                          │  Reputation server            │
                                                                          │  (on the agent's Hono process)│
OTHER AGENTS ──────── MCP query ──────── x402 paid ─────────────────────► │  • /mcp (Casper x402)           │
(yield bots,                                                              │  • CAP WebSocket (USDC/Base)    │
 wallets, oracles)                                                        └─────────────────────────────────┘

The companion Next.js dashboard surfaces the live agent's state, conviction signals, dual-chain anchors, and (separately) lets users analyze their own Solana / Base wallet history through the same conviction lens with optional ZK-private reputation.

A second data pipeline runs alongside CMC: SoSoValue API for token snapshots, SSI indices, news feeds, and macro events; SoDEX as a testnet orderbook execution venue alongside TWAK; and an AI market narrative generator that produces natural-language commentary from SoSoValue's feeds and the conviction state.

SoSoValue API ──┬── Token snapshots ──► Price / RSI / Quality (30s refresh)
                ├── SSI Indices ──────► Regime confirmation (BTCSSI/ETHSSI 7d Δ
                │                       reweights FGI + funding)
                ├── News feeds ───────► (a) Market narrative + (b) per-symbol
                │                       sentiment → ±10pp conviction
                └── Macro events ────► Trade-size pause (high-impact <12h:
                                          halve size; <4h: skip entries)
                       │
                  ┌────▼────┐
                  │         │
CMC MCP ─────────►  Conviction Engine  ◄──── On-Chain Holder Growth
                  │         │
                  └────┬────┘
                       │
                  SoDEX (testnet) │ TWAK (BSC)
                  (orderbook,     │ (AMM swap,
                   ValueChain)    │  universal fallback)
                       │
                  ┌────▼────┐
                  │         │
                  │ Anchor  │──► Mantle (ERC-8004)
                  │ Layer   │──► Casper (Odra)
                  │         │
                  └─────────┘

Live

Casper Agentic Buildathon 2026 submission: the Casper-native reputation marketplace layer — Odra contract, MCP server, and x402 paywall. Full narrative in SUBMISSION.md.

CROO Hackathon submission: the same reputation marketplace is now callable through the CROO Agent Protocol, settling in USDC on Base. See docs/CROO_INTEGRATION.md.

• Agent dashboard — https://earlynotwrong.vercel.app/agent
• Agent API — GET /status, /conviction, /trades on port 31777
• MCP reputation API — POST /mcp (6 tools; the trust-decision reputation queries are free, the recurring-value data — history, cross-chain, live conviction signals — is x402-paid). See docs/CASPER_INTEGRATION.md for the one-curl reproduction.
• CAP reputation API — live: connected to CROO via WebSocket, with signals-live ($0.05) registered and searchable on the CROO Agent Store as "Early, Not Wrong". See docs/CROO_INTEGRATION.md for why the other four reputation tools (including the free reputation-agent trust check) stay MCP-only instead.
• CAP status endpoint — GET /cap/status on port 31777
• Demo — asciinema replay (~30s — MCP + x402 walk-through; recorded before the current pricing — get_agent_reputation shown as paid is now free)
• Latest dual-chain anchor — verifiable on Mantle Sepolia and Casper Testnet

Quick Start

# Install
npm install
cd agent && npm install && cd ..

# Web app (Next.js dashboard)
npm run dev

# Agent — simulator mode (no credentials needed)
AGENT_MODE=simulator npm run --prefix agent dev

# Agent — live mode (see agent/.env.example for the full env)
cp agent/.env.example agent/.env   # fill in values
npm run --prefix agent dev

Quick Start — SoSoValue + SoDEX Pipeline

# 1. SoSoValue API access
# Register at https://openapi.sosovalue.com → get API key
# Then:
echo "SOSOVALUE_API_KEY=your_key_here" >> agent/.env

# 2. SoDEX testnet (no application needed — works directly)
# Generate an EIP-712 signing key pair, then:
echo "SODEX_API_KEY_PRIVATE=0x1234...5678" >> agent/.env
echo "SODEX_API_KEY_NAME=enw-agent" >> agent/.env

# 3. AI market narrative (optional — template mode works without these)
echo "OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-..." >> agent/.env   # GPT-4o-mini
echo "ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-..." >> agent/.env  # Claude 3 Haiku

Quick Start — CROO Agent Protocol (CAP)

# 1. Create your agent on https://agent.croo.network, then register
#    only this one service — the only one defensible for a cold Store
#    buyer (see docs/CROO_INTEGRATION.md for why the other four
#    reputation tools, including the free reputation-agent trust check,
#    stay MCP-only instead of Store-listed):
#    • signals-live          ($0.05 — live conviction signals)
#
# 2. Copy the SDK key from the CROO dashboard
echo "CROO_SDK_KEY=croo_sk_..." >> agent/.env
#
# 3. (Optional) Override default CROO endpoints
echo "CROO_API_URL=https://api.croo.network" >> agent/.env
echo "CROO_WS_URL=wss://api.croo.network/ws" >> agent/.env

When the agent starts it will connect to CROO via WebSocket and accept incoming reputation orders. Payment settles on-chain in USDC on Base.

Current status: live. CROO wallet 0x5d3d23679DFb6b01107b50A840b3c2EbB45AeE2C is whitelisted, CROO_SDK_KEY is set, and the agent is connected ([cap] Connected to CROO CAP) — confirmed at GET /cap/status.

Key Documents

Document	What it covers
SOUL.md	Design philosophy and architectural soul
AGENTS.md	Agent orchestration guide
docs/CORE_PRINCIPLES.md	Enhancement First, DRY, Consolidation — governs every change
docs/AGENT_DESIGN.md	BSC trading agent: 6-factor signal, bankroll discipline, 6-layer scam-token defense
docs/MANTLE_INTEGRATION.md	ERC-8004 ConvictionRegistry on Mantle Sepolia
docs/CASPER_INTEGRATION.md	Casper Odra registry + MCP server + x402 reputation paywall
docs/CROO_INTEGRATION.md	CROO Agent Protocol integration — CAP services, USDC settlement, SDK methods
docs/SOSOVALUE_INTEGRATION.md	SoSoValue API + SoDEX + AI narrative pipeline
docs/PRIVACY_MODEL.md	Aleo ZK-proof selective disclosure + signed-voucher rebate flow
docs/SECURITY.md	Signed-voucher treasury + replay protection
ROADMAP.md	Phase status — Aleo Testnet v3 live (rebate + selective disclosure), Mantle ERC-8004 shipped

Core Thesis

In asymmetric markets, conviction isn't tested when you're wrong — it's tested when you're early. Losses are capped (−1x), but wins are uncapped. The most expensive mistake isn't being wrong — it's selling winners too early. The agent encodes this as a six-factor contrarian signal (contrarian + RSI timing + quality + fear-regime + holder growth − volatility penalty) and holds through ordinary drawdown by design.

Architecture (One-Line Map)

Core Agent

• Conviction Engine — agent/lib/conviction-signal.ts (pure functions)
• Risk Guardrails — agent/lib/risk-guardrails.ts (drawdown, concentration, conviction floor, allowlist)
• TWAK Execution — agent/lib/twak-executor.ts + scam-token defense (DexScreener pool depth + reference-price gate)
• On-Chain Portfolio — agent/lib/onchain-portfolio.ts (balanceOf truth, contract-priced)
• Anchor Adapters — agent/lib/anchors/{mantle,casper,index}.ts (one interface, N chains, read + write)
• Casper Contract — casper/src/conviction_registry.rs (Odra/Rust)
• MCP Server — agent/src/mcp/{server,tools,x402,pricing}.ts (6 tools, x402 paywall, mounted on the existing Hono process)
• CAP Adapter — agent/src/cap/{client,handler,pricing}.ts (CROO Agent Protocol WebSocket client, USDC settlement, reuses the same reputation tools)
• Payment Stats — agent/src/payment-stats.ts (shared counters for x402 and CAP)
• Dashboard — src/app/agent/page.tsx (Next.js, proxies the live agent, surfaces MCP + x402 + CAP stats)

SoSoValue + SoDEX Pipeline

• Composite Data Provider — agent/lib/data-providers.ts (SosovalueClient + CmcClient in one module — 30s-refresh token snapshots, SSI indices, news feeds, macro events; SoSoValue token prices preferred, CMC fills regime gaps)
• SoDEX Client + EIP-712 Signing — agent/lib/dex-trading.ts (SodexClient, nonce manager, signed market orders, balances) — ValueChain testnet, TWAK fallback on miss
• SoSoValue Trading Signals — agent/lib/sosovalue-signals.ts (SSI index regime confirmation → scoreMarketRegime; high-impact macro event pause → trade sizing; per-symbol news sentiment → scoreTokenConviction)
• Market Narrative Generator — agent/lib/market-narrative.ts (template-based + optional LLM-enhanced market commentary from SoSoValue feeds)

Origins & Casper Buildathon Submission

This codebase has been developed across several 2026 hackathons and bounties, each contributing a specific layer of the architecture. See the documents below for the full lineage and design history.

The Casper Agentic Buildathon 2026 submission is the reputation marketplace layer: an Odra smart contract on Casper Testnet, a Casper adapter that reads and writes that contract, an MCP server exposing the registry to other agents, and an x402 paywall so agents pay per query with CEP-18 micropayments. The autonomous BSC trading agent is the live reputation source that feeds this layer.

For the buildathon submission narrative, see SUBMISSION.md.

Layer history

Layer	Hackathon / Bounty	Document
Autonomous BSC trading agent, 6-factor conviction signal, bankroll discipline	BNB Hack: AI Trading Agent Edition	docs/AGENT_DESIGN.md
ERC-8004 ConvictionRegistry on Mantle	Mantle Turing Test 2026	docs/MANTLE_INTEGRATION.md
Odra registry + MCP server + x402 paywall on Casper	Casper Agentic Buildathon 2026	docs/CASPER_INTEGRATION.md
CROO Agent Protocol adapter with USDC settlement on Base	CROO Hackathon	docs/CROO_INTEGRATION.md
Aleo ZK selective disclosure + signed-voucher rebates	Aleo Privacy Buildathon 2026	docs/PRIVACY_MODEL.md
SoSoValue market data + SoDEX execution + AI narrative	SoSoValue Buildathon 2026 (Wave 3)	docs/SOSOVALUE_INTEGRATION.md
Solana four-gate pre-trade safety skill	Superteam Brasil Solana AI Kit	agent/lib/solana-safety.ts + solana-safe-trade-skill

What This Is NOT

A trading bot. A signals platform. A leaderboard for speculation. Financial advice. This is self-knowledge for asymmetric markets — backed by a portable, cross-chain reputation layer.

License

MIT