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taggarttufte/README.md

Hi, I'm Taggart

Mathematics major at Montana State University, graduating May 2026. Building at the intersection of mathematics, machine learning, and AI safety.

Current Work

Empirical study of how Arditi et al.'s (NeurIPS 2024) "refusal lives in a single direction" finding transfers across model families. Replicated cleanly on Qwen 2.5 1.5B (10/10 coherent jailbreak, N=12 with explicit coherence checks), then mapped a 5x3 block-by-direction matrix across Gemma 2 2B, Gemma 3 1B, and Gemma 4 E2B to test single-layer ablation. Cross-Gemma results are dramatically asymmetric — Gemma 3 is the architectural outlier, not the rule.

Key result: Direct parameter inspection found that Gemma 3's post_attention_layernorm and post_feedforward_layernorm gains are 5–30x larger than Gemma 2, Gemma 4, or Qwen — amplifying per-block residual perturbations and making single-layer interventions disproportionately effective. Gemma 4 corrected the calibration. Random-direction control rules out the noise-injection alternative. Inference-only on a 12 GB consumer GPU.

PyTorch HuggingFace Transformers mechanistic interpretability forward hooks matplotlib

Comparative evaluation of multi-signal pandemic early-warning, submitted to Apart Research's AIxBio Hackathon (Track 2) and externally reviewed. Tests whether four surveillance signal types — wastewater PCR, Google Trends, Wikipedia pageviews, and CDC syndromic data — keep calibrated relationships with clinical ground truth across a pathogen's transition from emerging to endemic, using COVID-19 as the subject and influenza as a controlled comparison.

Key result: Attention-based signals show 5–23x variance compression after the first major COVID-19 wave but none across flu seasons — attention decay is an emerging-disease novelty-cycle phenomenon, not a property of the signal type. Wastewater is the only signal type that holds calibration across the full lifecycle. Includes an honest negative result on LLM-conversation surveillance.

Python pandas HuggingFace Transformers time-series anomaly detection matplotlib

Systematic comparison of four ML model families for predicting ICU mortality on MIMIC-IV (74,829 patients). Feature-engineered XGBoost (AUROC 0.9565) significantly outperforms Neural ODEs (0.9039) and clinical language models (0.8809), with all differences confirmed by bootstrap CIs and DeLong significance tests. Investigated whether clinical text models exploit code status documentation (CMO/DNR) as a confound using a novel multi-task ClinicalBERT framework.

Key result: Structured time-series features dominate text for short-horizon ICU mortality. The interesting question is not which model wins, but what each modality actually captures.

Python PyTorch torchdiffeq HuggingFace XGBoost PEFT SLURM/HPC

PPO reinforcement learning agent for the roguelike poker deckbuilder Balatro — eight architecture versions, ~366 hours of compute. Started by training against the live game through a Lua mod with file/socket IPC (V1–V3), then pivoted to a from-scratch, audited Python simulation (164 jokers, consumables, boss blinds) for a ~12,500x throughput speedup. The final V7 agent uses a hierarchical action space — an intent head over play/discard/use plus a learned card-selection head — over a 434-dim observation at ~2.5M parameters, peaking at a 2.35% solo win rate and reaching ante 9 reliably with strategic discarding.

Key result: The ~2% ceiling is capacity-insensitive. Six reward-shaping retunes, a 5.5x network scale-up, and four self-play variants all hit the same plateau — the bottleneck is the exploration mechanism, not network size. Concluded with a principled next axis: MCTS with a neural policy/value prior, not more model-free PPO.

Python Stable-Baselines3 Gymnasium Lua PPO

Live Jekyll site of long-form reviews on AI safety, philosophy of science, and epistemology — Taleb, Christian, Callard, Hao, and others. Each review is its own argument, not a summary: what the book changed, where it falls short, and how it connects to alignment or my own research. Source: taggarttufte/book-reviews.

Jekyll GitHub Pages kramdown MathJax

Other Projects

Multi-Voice Audiobook Generator End-to-end EPUB → multi-voice MP3 audiobook pipeline using xAI's Grok TTS. Heuristic dialogue attribution with confidence scoring, gender-matched voice mapping, per-segment caching, and a bundled Flask web player with variable speed, bookmarks, and paragraph-synced read-along. 7 books rendered to date; ~70× cheaper to run than ElevenLabs at comparable quality.

Ski Resort Pricing Analysis Predictive modeling of season pass prices across 500+ resorts using multi-variable regression and Cholesky decomposition. Built from numerical foundations rather than black-box libraries.

SVD Image Compression Image compression via Singular Value Decomposition. 17x compression at rank-50 with less than 6% reconstruction error.

Tech Stack

Python · PyTorch · NumPy · pandas · scikit-learn · HuggingFace Transformers · Stable-Baselines3 · Flask · MATLAB · XGBoost · Git · SLURM

Background

Strong foundation in numerical linear algebra, real analysis, and statistical theory. Experience with HPC (MSU Tempest, NVIDIA A40) for training neural models at scale. Interested in AI safety and Alignment.

Pinned Loading

  1. refusal-direction-study refusal-direction-study Public

    Cross-architecture refusal-direction ablation study: Qwen 2.5 + Gemma 2/3/4. Mechanistic explanation for why Gemma 3 specifically admits single-layer jailbreaks.

    Python

  2. book-reviews book-reviews Public

    Book reviews on philosophy of science, AI safety, and technical non-fiction

    HTML

  3. balatro-rl balatro-rl Public

    PPO reinforcement learning agent that plays Balatro via a custom Gymnasium environment and Lua game mod

    Python

  4. neural-ode-icu neural-ode-icu Public

    Latent ODE model for ICU mortality prediction using PhysioNet 2012

    Python

  5. multivoice-audiobook multivoice-audiobook Public

    Python 1

  6. ski-resort-pricing ski-resort-pricing Public

    Predictive modeling of ski resort season pass prices using multi-variable regression and Cholesky decomposition

    Jupyter Notebook