BGE analysis bullets

reports/md_hp_rates/Justfile

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+all: clean render
+
+clean:
+    uv run python -m lib.just.clean
+
+render path_qmd="":
+    uv run python -m lib.just.render {{ path_qmd }}
+
+draft path_qmd="index.qmd":
+    uv run python -m lib.just.draft {{ path_qmd }}
+
+typeset path_qmd="":
+    uv run python -m lib.just.typeset {{ path_qmd }}
+
+publish:
+    uv run python -m lib.just.publish
+
+diff label="":
+    uv run python -m lib.just.diff {{ label }}

reports/md_hp_rates/_quarto.yml

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+project:
+  type: manuscript
+  output-dir: docs
+  render:
+    - notebooks/analysis.qmd
+    - index.qmd
+manuscript:
+  article: index.qmd
+fig-format: svg
+format:
+  html:
+    page-layout: article
+    smooth-scroll: true
+    link-external-window: true
+    theme:
+      - ../.style/switchbox.scss
+    include-in-header: ../.style/notebook-preview.html
+    include-after-body: ../.style/switchbox.html
+shortcodes:
+  - ../../lib/quarto_extensions/glossary/glossary.lua
+filters:
+  - at: pre-quarto
+    path: ../../lib/quarto_extensions/icml_floats/icml_floats.lua
+  - path: ../../lib/quarto_extensions/icml_math/icml_math.lua

reports/md_hp_rates/cache/.gitignore

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+# Ignore everything in this directory
+*
+# Except this file
+!.gitignore

reports/md_hp_rates/index.qmd

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+---
+title: "INDEX TEMPLATE"
+subtitle: ""
+date: today
+author:
+  - name:
+    orcid:
+    affiliations:
+      - Switchbox
+
+bibliography: ../references.bib
+license: "CC BY-NC"
+
+toc: true
+notebook-links: false
+reference-location: margin
+fig-cap: true
+fig-cap-location: margin
+tbl-cap-location: margin
+
+appendix-style: default
+citation-location: document
+citation:
+  container-title: Switchbox
+
+# Uncomment this when PDF version has been added to local docs/
+#other-links:
+#  - text: PDF
+#    icon: file-earmark-pdf
+#    href: docs/switchbox_report.pdf
+---
+
+# Introduction
+
+# Executive Summary
+
+- If you are a BGE customer (on schedule R) and you go from natural gas to a heat pump, your total annual energy bills go up TK% of the time
+- HP customers (on schedule R) are being overcharged by an average of $TK a year
+    - Since this is on the delivery side, it's the same on RL, because it has essentially the same volumetric delivery rate
+- A TOU rate doesn't fix it: HP customers on schedule RD would still be overcharged by an average of $TK a year
+- There are two ways to fix this
+    - Lower the volumetric rate by raising the fixed charge (and maybe by making the volumetric rate seasonal... but in a revenue-neutral way.)
+        - You'd have to raise it to $TK a month from $TK today in order to eliminate the cross-subsidy.
+            - Is this equivalent to making the fixed charge equal residual costs, and having volumetric just cover marginal?
+        - If you do this on the default rate, it is very disruptive.
+        - If you do this via an optional rate that anyone can access, then it would raise the bills of TK% of existing HP customers compared to being on schedule R
+        - Bill impact if you do this: TK percentage points more people can save by moving to heat pumps
+        - Energy burden impact if you do this: under current HVAC TK% of customers are burdened. This changes to TK% under heat pumps and default rates. And it changes to TK% under heat pumps and higher fixed charge.
+    - Lower the volumetric rate full stop, which only works through a tech-specific rate
+        - Under a flat design, the volumetric delivery would have to go from $TK per kWh today to $TK to eliminate the overpayment
+            - The bill impact on other customers would be $TK per month
+        - If you wanted to do this through a seasonal design, the volumetric delivery rate would stay the same in summer but would drop to $TK per kWh in winter.
+        - Energy burden impact if you do this: under current HVAC TK% of customers are burdened. This changes to TK% under heat pumps and default rates. And it changes to TK% under heat pumps and lower volumetric rate.
+
+- Headroom analysis?
+- Cost-of-service calculation using NCP allocators doesn't make sense
+
+
+- Alternative argument
+    - Median customer on natural gas pays the following for electricity delivery: $X for distribution, $Y for transmission, etc etc for every delivery program
+    - When they get a heat pump, their electrical usage goes up by TK%.
+    - Due to volumetric rates, that means that they now pay the following for electricity delivery: $X for distribution, $Y for transmission, etc etc for every delivery program
+    - Is this fair?
+    - Bonbright says that rates are fair if they reflect cost causation.
+    - However, the new T&D costs associated with that new load are only X%, not TK%: by using cooling in the top 100 loads hours of the year, they impose approximately $TK in new distribution costs and $TK in transmission costs, in any given year. But they are being charged $TK and $TK extra.
+    - That extra revenue has the effect of pushing rates down, which means that fossil-heating customers end up paying LESS than they would otherwise (than their cost to serve).
+    - This also happens with riders, by the way: given that the budgets they collect are fixed in any given year, if my contribution to said program doubles from one year to the next, other people are get to pay less than they would have otherwise. Cross-subsidy still happens!
+    - In total, HP customers are overpaying by $TK million a year across BGE's territory.
+        - (Overpayment here is defined as incremental delivery bill - incremental marginal cost, so we'd need to estimate this for people currently on heat pumps.)
+    - We are charging HP customers more than their incremental cost of service in order to subsidize the electrical bills of the customers who heat in the ways that the state of MD is trying to move away from.
+
+# Background
+
+# Findings
+
+# Appendix
+
+## Acknowledgments
+
+## Data and Methods
+
+## Assumptions
+
+## References

reports/md_hp_rates/notebooks/analysis.qmd

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+---
+title: ANALYSIS TEMPLATE
+
+toc: true
+reference-location: margin
+fig-cap-location: bottom
+
+appendix-style: default
+citation-location: document
+citation:
+  container-title: Switchbox
+
+format:
+  html:
+    page-layout: full
+---