Reality stream update — week of 2026-07-06

src/csim/data/reality_2026.yaml

@@ -1,131 +1,69 @@
-# Real-world values as of approximately 2026
-# Each value represents the best available estimate for the state of the world
-# Sources cited in comments per dimension
+# Real-world values — auto-updated by reality stream
+# Last update: 2026-07-06 13:15 UTC
 year: 2026
 
 # ── Geopolitical ──
-# Pew Research Center polarization surveys; partisan antipathy at record highs
 us_polarization: 0.72
-# EU post-Brexit, Ukraine solidarity but internal populist tensions (Hungary, etc.)
 eu_cohesion: 0.55
-# Gallup US Global Leadership Approval; declined under polarization and
-# inconsistent foreign policy signals
 us_global_standing: 0.55
-# CSIS/Lowy China Power Index; steady military/economic rise, Belt & Road
 china_power_index: 0.52
-# Russia weakened by Ukraine war sanctions, military losses, but regime intact
-russia_stability: 0.30
-# Ongoing conflicts: Yemen, Syria aftermath, Israel-Gaza/Lebanon escalation 2023-24
+russia_stability: 0.29
 middle_east_stability: 0.25
-# India GDP growth ~7%, demographic dividend, G20 presidency 2023
-india_power_index: 0.30
-# Mixed: Argentina crisis, Brazil recovery, regional instability
-latin_america_stability: 0.42
+india_power_index: 0.3
+latin_america_stability: 0.4
 
 # ── Economic ──
-# World Bank global GDP growth ~3% (post-pandemic recovery, but below trend)
 global_gdp_growth_modifier: 1.03
-# World Inequality Lab; Gini rising in many economies, wealth concentration
 inequality_index: 0.62
-# US federal debt ~120% of GDP (CBO estimates)
-us_debt_gdp_ratio: 1.20
-# CoinMarketCap total crypto market cap ~$2-3T range
+us_debt_gdp_ratio: 1.2
 crypto_market_cap_trillion: 2.5
-# Post-COVID supply chain diversification (friend-shoring), but still fragile
 supply_chain_resilience: 0.55
 
 # ── Technology ──
-# AI development roughly 3-5 years ahead of year-2000 extrapolations
-# GPT-4 (2023), Claude 3 (2024), rapid LLM progress
-ai_development_year_offset: 4
-# Freedom House Internet Freedom report; declining globally since 2015
+ai_development_year_offset: 5
 internet_freedom_index: 0.58
-# ITU/DataReportal: ~62% of world population on social media
 social_media_penetration: 0.62
-# Cochlear implants, prosthetics, early Neuralink trials — still niche
 human_augmentation_prevalence: 0.03
-# ISS still operational, Artemis program, SpaceX Starship, commercial LEO
 space_development_index: 0.08
 
 # ── Security ──
-# Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds; Ukraine war,
-# nuclear rhetoric, Middle East escalation
-nuclear_risk_level: 0.30
-# Global Terrorism Index (IEP); post-ISIS decline but lone wolf threats persist
+nuclear_risk_level: 0.32
 terrorism_threat_index: 0.25
-# Facial recognition, NSO Group/Pegasus, China social credit, expanding globally
-surveillance_state_index: 0.40
-# Cybersecurity Ventures: global cybercrime damages ~$8T annually by 2023,
-# growing ~15% YoY
+surveillance_state_index: 0.4
 global_cyber_damage_annual_b: 10.0
-# Ukraine war drones, autonomous systems proliferating rapidly
-drone_warfare_prevalence: 0.25
+drone_warfare_prevalence: 0.27
 
 # ── Climate / Environment ──
-# NASA GISS: 2023 was +1.17C, 2024 ~+1.3C above pre-industrial;
-# relative to year-2000 baseline of 0.6
-climate_temp_anomaly: 1.30
-# IEA: renewables ~30% of global electricity generation by 2024;
-# as share of total primary energy ~15%
+climate_temp_anomaly: 1.3
 renewable_energy_share: 0.15
-# NASA sea level data: ~100mm rise since 2000 (3.4mm/yr average)
-sea_level_rise_meters: 0.10
-# WWF Living Planet Index: ~69% decline in wildlife populations since 1970;
-# normalized index declining
+sea_level_rise_meters: 0.1
 biodiversity_index: 0.55
-# UN World Water Development Report; increasing stress from climate + population
 water_stress_index: 0.38
-# Global Food Security Index (EIU); pandemic + Ukraine war disrupted supply
 food_security_index: 0.72
-# NSIDC: September Arctic sea ice extent ~4.2M km2 vs ~6.3M km2 in 1980s;
-# normalized relative to 2000
 arctic_ice_status: 0.68
 
 # ── Human / Social ──
-# WHO: COVID-19 ~7M official deaths (likely 15-20M excess); using official
 global_pandemic_deaths: 7000000
-# Uppsala Conflict Data Program: cumulative since 2000; Syria, Yemen, Ukraine,
-# Ethiopia, Sudan, etc.
-conflict_deaths: 1500000
-# CDC: cumulative US opioid overdose deaths ~700K through 2024
+conflict_deaths: 1503000
 opioid_deaths_cumulative: 700000
-# Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index 2024: global average ~5.2/10
 global_democracy_index: 0.52
-# Pew Research: trust in US government near historic lows (~20% trust)
 us_institutional_trust: 0.25
-# Oxford Internet Institute; deepfakes, AI-generated content, election interference
 misinformation_severity: 0.65
-# Slow progress on policing reform, DEI backlash, Supreme Court affirmative action ruling
 racial_justice_index: 0.42
-# World Economic Forum Gender Gap Report 2024: ~68.5% closed
 gender_equity_index: 0.52
-# CDC: US life expectancy dropped ~2.5 years during COVID, partially recovered;
-# net ~-1 year from 2000 baseline trajectory
 us_life_expectancy_delta: -1.0
-# UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision
 global_population_billions: 8.1
-# UN median age estimates for 2025
 median_age_global: 30.5
-# McKinsey/WEF estimates: ~15% of work hours could be automated with current AI
 automation_displacement: 0.15
 
 # ── Governance / Structure ──
-# Mixed governance models; technocratic vs populist trends
 governance_model: 0.48
-# Partisan division, institutional stress, but system persists
 us_unity_index: 0.35
-# EU coordination improved on Ukraine, but no federation movement
 europe_federation_index: 0.25
-# Xi consolidated power; third term, anti-corruption, zero-COVID reversal
-china_regime_type: 0.10
-# Saudi Vision 2030, UAE diversification; still heavily oil-dependent
+china_regime_type: 0.1
 middle_east_post_oil: 0.15
-# Arctic Council suspended Russia; governance fragmented
 arctic_sovereignty_resolved: 0.08
-# AfCFTA launched, digital transformation, but infrastructure gaps remain
 africa_development_index: 0.32
 
 # ── Existential ──
-# Cumulative existential risk from nuclear, climate, pandemic, AI;
-# modest but non-trivial accumulation over 26 years
 existential_risk_cumulative: 0.08

src/csim/data/reality_stream_log.json

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+[
+  {
+    "timestamp": "2026-07-06T13:15:39.907865+00:00",
+    "dimension_updates": {
+      "nuclear_risk_level": 0.32,
+      "drone_warfare_prevalence": 0.27,
+      "russia_stability": 0.29,
+      "latin_america_stability": 0.4,
+      "ai_development_year_offset": 5,
+      "conflict_deaths": 1503000
+    },
+    "new_nodes": [],
+    "reasoning": "Week of 2026-06-29 to 07-06. Russia escalated massively against Kyiv (Jul 2 and Jul 6 barrages: 351 drones + 68 missiles in one night, all 29 ballistic missiles hitting through failing air defenses; ~40+ civilians killed), while Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian oil/fuel infrastructure caused severe shortages and pressured Moscow, and Poland scrambled jets / Finland restricted airspace (NATO spillover risk): lifts nuclear_risk_level and drone_warfare_prevalence, nudges russia_stability down, and increments cumulative conflict_deaths. Venezuela's twin M7.2/M7.5 earthquakes (Jun 24-25, ~2,954 confirmed dead, 41,000 missing, $6.7B / ~6% of GDP damage, strongest in a century) drag latin_america_stability down as the toll climbed through the week. A cluster of frontier AI releases (Claude Sonnet 5 on Jun 30, GPT-5.6 preview, Grok 4.5 at 1.5T parameters) plus record $510B H1-2026 VC and Nvidia's ~$1T chip-demand pipeline mark continued acceleration, so ai_development_year_offset ticks from 4 to 5 (also correcting a baseline that still described the 2024 GPT-4/Claude-3 era). Deliberately excluded: the Iran/Khamenei state funeral this week is the ceremonial coda to a war that ended with a mid-June ceasefire (oil already back to ~$72), so it is outside this week's window; equity markets sat at record highs with only routine AI-stock profit-taking, no systemic move."
+  }
+]

web/reality.json

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+{
+  "generated": "2026-07-06T13:15:39.914116+00:00",
+  "reality": {
+    "year": 2026,
+    "us_polarization": 0.72,
+    "eu_cohesion": 0.55,
+    "us_global_standing": 0.55,
+    "china_power_index": 0.52,
+    "russia_stability": 0.29,
+    "middle_east_stability": 0.25,
+    "india_power_index": 0.3,
+    "latin_america_stability": 0.4,
+    "global_gdp_growth_modifier": 1.03,
+    "inequality_index": 0.62,
+    "us_debt_gdp_ratio": 1.2,
+    "crypto_market_cap_trillion": 2.5,
+    "supply_chain_resilience": 0.55,
+    "ai_development_year_offset": 5,
+    "internet_freedom_index": 0.58,
+    "social_media_penetration": 0.62,
+    "human_augmentation_prevalence": 0.03,
+    "space_development_index": 0.08,
+    "nuclear_risk_level": 0.32,
+    "terrorism_threat_index": 0.25,
+    "surveillance_state_index": 0.4,
+    "global_cyber_damage_annual_b": 10.0,
+    "drone_warfare_prevalence": 0.27,
+    "climate_temp_anomaly": 1.3,
+    "renewable_energy_share": 0.15,
+    "sea_level_rise_meters": 0.1,
+    "biodiversity_index": 0.55,
+    "water_stress_index": 0.38,
+    "food_security_index": 0.72,
+    "arctic_ice_status": 0.68,
+    "global_pandemic_deaths": 7000000,
+    "conflict_deaths": 1503000,
+    "opioid_deaths_cumulative": 700000,
+    "global_democracy_index": 0.52,
+    "us_institutional_trust": 0.25,
+    "misinformation_severity": 0.65,
+    "racial_justice_index": 0.42,
+    "gender_equity_index": 0.52,
+    "us_life_expectancy_delta": -1.0,
+    "global_population_billions": 8.1,
+    "median_age_global": 30.5,
+    "automation_displacement": 0.15,
+    "governance_model": 0.48,
+    "us_unity_index": 0.35,
+    "europe_federation_index": 0.25,
+    "china_regime_type": 0.1,
+    "middle_east_post_oil": 0.15,
+    "arctic_sovereignty_resolved": 0.08,
+    "africa_development_index": 0.32,
+    "existential_risk_cumulative": 0.08
+  },
+  "stream_log": [
+    {
+      "timestamp": "2026-07-06T13:15:39.907865+00:00",
+      "dimension_updates": {
+        "nuclear_risk_level": 0.32,
+        "drone_warfare_prevalence": 0.27,
+        "russia_stability": 0.29,
+        "latin_america_stability": 0.4,
+        "ai_development_year_offset": 5,
+        "conflict_deaths": 1503000
+      },
+      "new_nodes": [],
+      "reasoning": "Week of 2026-06-29 to 07-06. Russia escalated massively against Kyiv (Jul 2 and Jul 6 barrages: 351 drones + 68 missiles in one night, all 29 ballistic missiles hitting through failing air defenses; ~40+ civilians killed), while Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian oil/fuel infrastructure caused severe shortages and pressured Moscow, and Poland scrambled jets / Finland restricted airspace (NATO spillover risk): lifts nuclear_risk_level and drone_warfare_prevalence, nudges russia_stability down, and increments cumulative conflict_deaths. Venezuela's twin M7.2/M7.5 earthquakes (Jun 24-25, ~2,954 confirmed dead, 41,000 missing, $6.7B / ~6% of GDP damage, strongest in a century) drag latin_america_stability down as the toll climbed through the week. A cluster of frontier AI releases (Claude Sonnet 5 on Jun 30, GPT-5.6 preview, Grok 4.5 at 1.5T parameters) plus record $510B H1-2026 VC and Nvidia's ~$1T chip-demand pipeline mark continued acceleration, so ai_development_year_offset ticks from 4 to 5 (also correcting a baseline that still described the 2024 GPT-4/Claude-3 era). Deliberately excluded: the Iran/Khamenei state funeral this week is the ceremonial coda to a war that ended with a mid-June ceasefire (oil already back to ~$72), so it is outside this week's window; equity markets sat at record highs with only routine AI-stock profit-taking, no systemic move."
+    }
+  ]
+}