This study explores strategic considerations in professional golf's Match Play format, challenging the conventional focus on individual performance. Leveraging PGA Tour data, we investigate the impact of factoring in an adversary's strategy. Our findings suggest that while slight strategy adjustments can be advantageous in specific scenarios, the overall benefit of considering an opponent's strategy remains modest. This confirms the common wisdom in golf, reinforcing the recommendation to adhere to optimal stroke-play strategies due to challenges in obtaining precise opponent statistics. We believe that the methodology employed here could offer valuable insights into whether opponents' performances should also be considered in other two-player or team sports, such as tennis, darts, soccer, volleyball, etc. We hope that this research will pave the way for new avenues of study in these areas.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00180-024-01555-5