SmartScore

About this Program

You can find more information about this program on the website!

Calculating the probability

The current method for calculating the probability takes into account a variety of individual statistics:

• Player's goals per game (GPG)
• Player's goals per game in the last 5 games (5GPG)
• Player's goals per game over the last 3 NHL seasons (HGPG)
• Team's goals per game (TGPG)
• Other team's goals against per game (OTGA)
• Home or away (Home)
• Player's power play goals per game over the last 3 NHL seasons (HPPG)
• Other team's short handed goals per game (OTSHGA)

Running this Program

First install all necessary packages:
make local-setup

Deploy to AWS:

• On Linux/macOS:

  bash build_scripts/deploy.sh

  Or make it executable (chmod +x build_scripts/deploy.sh) and run:

  ./build_scripts/deploy.sh

• On Windows (using Git Bash or similar):

  sh build_scripts/deploy.sh

If you are on windows, ensure Docker is running with the image: "public.ecr.aws/amazonlinux/amazonlinux:2".

GitHub CD Configuration

The deployment pipeline expects the following GitHub repository secrets to be configured:

• AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID: AWS IAM access key ID used by CI/CD for authenticated AWS API calls.
• AWS_ACCOUNT_ID: Target AWS account ID used for deployment targeting and resource naming.
• AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY: AWS IAM secret key paired with the access key for CI/CD authentication.
• BREVO_FROM_EMAIL: Sender address used for outbound SmartScore notification emails.
• BREVO_SMTP_KEY: Brevo SMTP API key/password used to authenticate with the SMTP relay.
• BREVO_SMTP_LOGIN: Brevo SMTP login/username used with the SMTP key.
• FEATURE_SEND_EMAILS: Feature flag that enables or disables sending emails at runtime.
• SUPABASE_API_KEY: Supabase anon/public API key used by the default client.
• SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY: Supabase service-role key used for privileged server-side operations.
• SUPABASE_URL: Base URL for the Supabase project used by application clients.

Feature Flags

Feature flags are stored as environment variables and read at runtime.

• FEATURE_SEND_EMAILS: Controls whether SmartScore sends user notification emails.
  • true, 1, yes, on => enabled
  • false, 0, no, off (or unset if changed in code defaults) => disabled

Example:

FEATURE_SEND_EMAILS=false

Note: This program is intended for informational purposes only and does not facilitate actual betting. Users should exercise their own judgment and discretion when using the provided suggestions for betting purposes.

ALL CONSIDERED STATISTICS

• Goals Per Game (GPG): The most telling stat when determining if a player will score a goal. It implicitly considers factors like time on ice, shots per game, shot-to-goal ratio, etc.
• Goals Per Game in Last 5 Games (5GPG): Captures hot streaks (and cold streaks).
• Historic Goals Per Game (HGPG): A player's GPG over the last three seasons. Especially useful at the beginning of a new season when current GPG may be skewed.
• Team's Goals Per Game (TGPG): Useful if a player is traded to a new team.
• Other Team's Goals Against (OTGA): Captures the opposing team's defensive strength, factoring in defense quality, goalie performance, etc. This is independent of a player's GPG, which reflects their scoring average, whereas OTGA varies with each game.
• Home or Away: Helps identify patterns in a player's goal-scoring performance based on location.
• Historic Power Play Goals (HPPG): A player's power play goals over the last three seasons (since these are relatively rare, one season alone might be misleading). Can be combined with Other Team's Shorthanded Goals Against Per Game for a more comprehensive stat.
• Other Team's Shorthanded Goals Against Per Game (OTSHGA): Measures how many shorthanded goals a team allows per game. Can be combined with HPPG for a more meaningful composite stat. Also implicitly considers other team's penalty minutes, penalty kill percentage, etc.

Stats Already Covered by Others:

• Time on Ice → Covered by GPG.
• Shots Per Game → Covered by GPG.
• Shot Percentage → Covered by GPG.
• Other Team's Penalty Minutes → Covered by OTSHGA.