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Add probabilistic scaffold to ARModel via config-driven output_mode and ensemble_size - #228

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Add probabilistic scaffold to ARModel via config-driven output_mode and ensemble_size#228
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@Panchadip-128

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…on PR)

Describe your changes

This PR introduces a minimal probabilistic scaffold in ARModel by making probabilistic configuration fully config-driven.

Specifically, the model now reads output_mode and ensemble_size from config.training, enabling future ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting extensions while preserving existing deterministic behavior.

Additionally, a validation guard for output_mode is added and a minor typo (time_step_int_unit) is corrected to time_step_unit.

The change is intentionally lightweight and does not modify training, inference, or loss computation logic.

< Please also include relevant motivation and context. >
The probabilistic forecasting roadmap requires an architectural scaffold to support ensemble outputs without introducing breaking changes. Moving probabilistic control into the configuration layer aligns with Neural-LAM’s design philosophy and enables incremental extensions such as ensemble sampling and probabilistic losses.
< List any dependencies that are required for this change. >
No new dependencies were introduced

Issue Link

N/A — foundational scaffold for probabilistic forecasting support

Type of change

  • 🐛 Bug fix (non-breaking change that fixes an issue)
  • ✨ New feature (non-breaking change that adds functionality)
  • 💥 Breaking change (fix or feature that would cause existing functionality to not work as expected)
  • 📖 Documentation (Addition or improvements to documentation)

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  • My branch is up-to-date with the target branch - if not update your fork with the changes from the target branch (use pull with --rebase option if possible).
  • I have performed a self-review of my code
  • For any new/modified functions/classes I have added docstrings that clearly describe its purpose, expected inputs and returned values
  • I have placed in-line comments to clarify the intent of any hard-to-understand passages of my code
  • I have updated the README to cover introduced code changes
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Each PR comes with its own improvements and flaws. The reviewer should check the following:

  • the code is readable
  • the code is well tested
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  • I have added a line to the CHANGELOG describing this change, in a section
    reflecting type of change (add section where missing):
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    • changed: when default behaviour of the code has been changed
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  • PR is up to date with the base branch
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@leifdenby

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this looks like the same changes as #229, can we close this @Panchadip-128 ? Please make a draft PR in future if your work isn't ready for us to look at yet :)

@Panchadip-128

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Thank you for your feedback, and apologies for any confusion caused by the duplicate PR. I appreciate your guidance and will make sure to submit draft PRs for work-in-progress in the future.

Please feel free to close this PR so we can consolidate discussion on other PR.
Sorry again for any inconvenience, and thank you for your support!

@sadamov

sadamov commented Feb 23, 2026

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closed as per discussion, work is being done here: #229

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3 participants