An incubator for software startups, to create massive public good in the age of transformative AI. It's a 3 month program, starting late July in SF. We provide seed funding, advice, peers, intros, and space to focus.
Expression of interest here: https://manifund.org/surplus
(last updated 2026-05-29)
We’re open to many proposals, but here are three categories of projects we’re particularly well-suited to incubate:
LLM-powered tools that help people think better, work together, and build common knowledge.
Examples include:
- Fact-checking like Community Notes or Pangram
- Knowledge bases like Grokipedia or Longterm Wiki
- High-quality research reports like Elicit or Deep Research
- AI for forecasting like Mantic or Futuresearch
- AI simulation of human preferences, like Simile or Aaru
- AI for dispute resolution (eg community investigations; prediction markets criteria)
- AI for democratic resilience, resisting authoritarianism
Many concepts in AI safety could be translated for a wider audience, with thoughtful design and an eye for virality.
Examples include:
- Microsites like AI 2027, showcasing concepts through narrative & interactive design
- Visualizations like Epoch and Our World in Data
- Transparency for inside what’s happening inside labs, and across the AI supply chain
- Courses like Bluedot, helping people upskill into relevant domains
- Games like Universal Paperclips, teaching concepts (eg orthogonality) through play
- Demos like Nicky Case’s, or of topics from recent alignment research papers
Think marketplaces or platforms, to address common problems shared by people and orgs working to reduce xrisk.
Examples include:
- Platforms for jobs, like the 80k Job Board or an “AI safety LinkedIn”
- Or other work opportunities (eg fellowships, grassroots coordination)
- Platforms for funding, like Manifund or an open-source S-process
- Or whitelabeled platforms for microgrants like ACX Grants or Bluedot Rapid Grants
- Or AI-powered grantmaking and review
- Platforms for writing, like LessWrong or EA Forum or Alignment Forum
- Apps organizing events (conferences, workshops, retreats), aka “better Swapcard”
- <$100k> in investment, as a SAFE at a <$2m> postmoney cap
- Work alongside a cohort of founders who care about xrisk and flourishing futures
- Weekly office hours with Austin Chen and Oliver Habryka
- Speakers like <Andreas Stuhlmueller, Geoff Ralston, David Holz, Emmett Shear>
- Space to work at Mox and Lighthaven
- Demo Day with aligned VCs and philanthropic funders
- May 29: Announce the program
- Submit applications through Airtable
- Jun 5-7: LessOnline
- Jun 10: Early applications due
- Jun 12-14: Manifest
- Jun 24: All applications due
- July 20th: Program kickoff
- <12 weeks of programming>
- Probably: weekly speakers, workshops, office hours, dinners
- Maybe: 2 weeks of iterating, cofounder matching up front?
- Maybe: 6 weeks at Lighthaven, 6 weeks at Mox
- Sep 18: demo day
Why does Surplus encourage for-profit corps?
First, there are many standard reasons to use a for-profit corporation when trying to do good. For-profits operate with tight feedback loops. They can be more certain that they produce value (see: gains from trade, Paul Graham on wealth, “surplus”). They can tap into a much larger pool of available financing. They can compensate founders and early employees with financial upside, should the venture work out well.
For-profit models are surprisingly flexible: Elicit, Apollo, Goodfire, Wave, Dwarkesh, Lighthaven and Manifest all demonstrate different approaches to making money while also serving the public interest.
Now is an excellent time to start a for-profit, given vast torrents of funding available from Anthropic employees and OpenAI Foundation. These funds are distributed out of 501c3 entities — but 501c3s can pay for for-profit services, and invest in for-profit corps. There’s a $100B market waiting to be constructed; shovels waiting to be sold.
And ideologically, we think that equity is a beautiful mechanism for value alignment and credit allocation. Manifund has previously experimented with impact certificates to bring this concept to the charity world; now, we think that plain ol’ corporate equity will work fine, maybe with a light sprinkling of retroactive funding or prize rounds or advance market commitments to finance public goods.
Why start a startup, rather than join a lab or an AI safety org?
It is absolutely the case that Anthropic or METR are great places to work. But maybe:
- You’re well suited towards starting projects: you enjoy independence, have high risk tolerance, and moving fast
- You’re worried the balance of power, as labs accumulate more talent and funding
- You have an idea that you can’t stop thinking about, a pain point you have to solve, something nobody else is doing that you think will have a big impact
Why should I join an incubator, when vibecoding is so easy?
Building great software takes more than coding. Product taste, visual design, distribution, sales and marketing are all things that 2026 LLMs still fail at. (Not to mention long-term coherence and maintainability within a codebase.) We’ve developed these supplementary skills needed to ship successful products, and would love to foster them in a new generation of founders.
What kind of outcomes is Surplus hoping for?
First and foremost, we’re hoping to incubate projects that produce massive good for the world. Of course, we’d be happy if our investments turn out profitable, helping us invest in more great projects. Finally, Manifund, Lightcone, and many others would be excited to hire founder-shaped folks; even if your specific project doesn’t succeed, your time at Surplus will be a fantastic work test.