Fix supply chain feedback: consumption-aware production + GPU backlog…#89
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… separation Three structural issues caused unrealistic behavior where all components showed growing production AND inventory while GPUs remained gated: 1. Component production targeted the unconstrained plan (planDemand) even when actual consumption was much lower due to a different component being the fleet bottleneck. Non-binding components produced at 2-3x what was being consumed, accumulating unbounded inventory. 2. Component expansion was triggered by planDemand * growthRatio, building capacity for phantom demand that nobody actually needed. 3. GPU backlog grew from ALL deployment shortfalls (including component gating), inflating the GPU plan via backlog paydown, which inflated component demand further — a positive feedback spiral. Fixes: - effectiveDemand = min(planDemand, actualConsumption * 1.5): producers respond to what customers actually take, with 50% growth headroom - STOCK nodes cap inventory at 4 months of effective consumption - Backlog, tightness, and expansion all use effectiveDemand - GPU backlog only grows from GPU production shortfalls, not component gating (component shortfalls tracked in component backlogs) - GPU buffer target tracks actual deployment, not unconstrained plan The binding constraint (whichever component has lowest supply/intensity) still produces at full capacity — only non-binding components throttle. https://claude.ai/code/session_01PHK9qmguUSTyvykAoho467
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… separation
Three structural issues caused unrealistic behavior where all components showed growing production AND inventory while GPUs remained gated:
Component production targeted the unconstrained plan (planDemand) even when actual consumption was much lower due to a different component being the fleet bottleneck. Non-binding components produced at 2-3x what was being consumed, accumulating unbounded inventory.
Component expansion was triggered by planDemand * growthRatio, building capacity for phantom demand that nobody actually needed.
GPU backlog grew from ALL deployment shortfalls (including component gating), inflating the GPU plan via backlog paydown, which inflated component demand further — a positive feedback spiral.
Fixes:
The binding constraint (whichever component has lowest supply/intensity) still produces at full capacity — only non-binding components throttle.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01PHK9qmguUSTyvykAoho467