A single-file, dependency-free research instrument that models how field-intelligence uncertainty degrades civilian evacuation decisions in armed conflict — built for a PhD project on civilian protection. All data is synthetic and reproducible from a seed number; no real locations or real datasets are used.
Live demo: indiaclarke03-ops.github.io/EvacSimulator
This repo mirrors the primary/canonical repository: Ethical-Tech-CoLab/India-EvacSimulation. Develop there first; this copy should track it, not diverge from it (see BACKLOG.md — this repo previously drifted out of date and has just been brought back in sync).
No build step. Open index.html in a browser, or serve the folder statically:
python3 -m http.server 8000
# then open http://localhost:8000/index.html
Generates synthetic evacuation destinations and evacuee groups from a seed, scores each destination's readiness across seven factors (three of them non-substitutable "gatekeepers" — Security, Authority consent, Willingness — any of which can hard-cap readiness at 20%), runs 500 Monte Carlo trials per group–destination pair to turn that readiness into a success-probability distribution, and assigns each group to its best-scoring available destination. A "Field Uncertainty" slider degrades every factor's confidence simultaneously, making it possible to watch predicted outcomes fall apart in real time as an information environment worsens — with no underlying condition on the ground actually changing.
A key design point: the model distinguishes an unassessed factor ("Unknown") from a confirmed exclusion ("Unwilling", for a host community that has explicitly declined) — conflating the two would make an unresolvable refusal look like a solvable intelligence gap. See CONCEPT.md for the full reasoning behind this and the other modelling choices.
| File | Purpose |
|---|---|
index.html |
The tool itself — UI, simulation engine, and an in-page Methodology accordion |
explainer.html |
Narrative walkthrough of the model, linked from "About this tool" and the "?" links throughout the tool |
CONCEPT.md |
The research problem, the readiness model, and the epistemic distinctions the tool insists on |
ARCHITECTURE.md |
How it's actually built — execution pipeline, state, configuration surface |
BACKLOG.md |
Open issues specific to this mirror repo |
Full formula derivations, rationale, and academic/IHL citations are in Evacuation_Simulator_Methodology.docx, kept in the primary repo linked above.
Every output is fully determined by four values: seed, number of destinations (N), number of evacuee groups (M), and uncertainty level. The Copy link button writes all four into the page URL and copies it to your clipboard — pasting that URL anywhere and opening it regenerates the exact same scenario.
Conceptual demonstration tool for thesis research, not an operational decision-support system. Outputs require empirical calibration before any real-world use — see the Assumptions & Limitations section in the Methodology accordion (in-app).