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Covid-19 community transmission similarity network

Summary

We generated a network of all US states Covid-19 community transmission data, using DTW as the measure of similarity. We also overlayed the "Most Aggressive States Against the Coronavirus" data on to this network. The results could potentially guide states towards planning for slowing down or avoiding huge covid-19 community transmission.

Network - Overlaid with aggressively prepared states info

Network - Overlaid with red/blue state info

Tree

Results

The network and tree shows that the states - Massachusetts, New Jersey, Colorado, Illinois, Georgia, Florida and Louisiana are following the trend of New York, Washington and California, in terms of the Covid-19 confirmed cases. Of these 7 states, Georgia and Florida are rated as below average for their preparedness against coronavirus.

Data

Method

  • For dates until March 10, 2020, the US State-by-state Covid-19 confirmed cases data was obtained from the last available CNN report
  • For dates from March 10 to March 17, 2020, the US State-by-state Covid-19 confirmed cases data was extracted from JHU data
  • For dates from March 18 2020, the US State-by-state Covid-19 confirmed cases data is extracted from CDC
  • For dates after March 20, 2020, weekend case numbers are obtained from the last available CNN report
  • The similarity among the states transmission time series data was calculated using the DTW method in R
  • The similarity tree was generated in R using hclust
  • The similarity network was generated in R using igraph/RCy3 and analyzed/visualized using Cytoscape
  • Network was overlaid with aggressively prepared states data and also with red/blue/swing state information

Sources

References

  1. Dynamic Time Warp - http://dtw.r-forge.r-project.org/
  2. RCy3 - https://github.com/cytoscape/RCy3
  3. Cytoscape - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403769/

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Covid-19 reported cases data and analysis for US states - Last Update : April 7, 2020

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