Measure World forecast calibration

README.md

@@ -248,6 +248,19 @@ of `1.0` and `0.0` across two matched pairs and another non-effective proposal.
 This freezes a World product rule over one recorded pair. It is not live revision, a general
 semantic-equivalence engine, population stability, calibration, causality, or human benefit.
 
+P2C9 freezes one exact probabilistic scoring boundary over that recorded correction. After the
+original Observation is admitted but before the correction is available, treatment and control
+record probabilities of `0.75` and `0.25` for the same explicit-correction event and complete the
+same reviewed workflow. Only then is the exact correction Observation admitted. Independent
+reviews derive the binary result and single-event Brier quality contributions of `0.9375` and
+`0.4375`; the two-pair difference is useful and still emits only a non-effective proposal.
+
+The forecast artifacts contain no correction identity or result material, and every reviewed
+forecast Action completes before the result becomes available. The probabilities are declared
+fixture inputs, not ACE outputs. This is exact forecast/result scoring, not a historically
+contemporaneous forecast, model-skill finding, empirical calibration curve, population reliability
+estimate, causal claim, or human-benefit finding.
+
 ## What the public World proof demonstrates
 
 Generate a self-contained visual Reality Brief and its exact machine-readable backing data:
@@ -342,11 +355,12 @@ $PY -m scripts.p2c3_measured_feedback "$WORKSPACE"
 # Stacked candidate: explicit reject/no-action review of the exact proposal
 $PY -m scripts.p2c4_reviewed_impact_disposition "$WORKSPACE"
 
-# Stacked candidates: correctness, attention, correction delay, and revision stability
+# Stacked candidates: correctness, attention, correction delay, revision stability, and forecast scoring
 $PY -m scripts.p2c5_citation_correctness_outcome "$WORKSPACE"
 $PY -m scripts.p2c6_contradiction_attention_outcome "$WORKSPACE"
 $PY -m scripts.p2c7_correction_detection_delay_outcome "$WORKSPACE"
 $PY -m scripts.p2c8_correction_revision_stability_outcome "$WORKSPACE"
+$PY -m scripts.p2c9_forecast_calibration_outcome "$WORKSPACE"
 ```
 
 The released 0.9.0 gates are reproducible through the locked environment, as CI does. The
@@ -383,6 +397,8 @@ The complete governed product-journey evidence is recorded in
 [`docs/audits/world-intelligence-p2c2-governed-reality-brief-2026-08-10.md`](docs/audits/world-intelligence-p2c2-governed-reality-brief-2026-08-10.md).
 The source-checkout measured-feedback candidate is recorded in
 [`docs/audits/world-intelligence-p2c3-measured-feedback-2026-08-10.md`](docs/audits/world-intelligence-p2c3-measured-feedback-2026-08-10.md).
+The latest withheld-result forecast-scoring candidate is recorded in
+[`docs/audits/world-intelligence-p2c9-forecast-calibration-outcome-2026-08-10.md`](docs/audits/world-intelligence-p2c9-forecast-calibration-outcome-2026-08-10.md).
 
 Release-level scope and evidence are recorded in
 [`docs/releases/world-intelligence-p2c2-v0.9.0.md`](docs/releases/world-intelligence-p2c2-v0.9.0.md),
@@ -417,8 +433,10 @@ control, and valid silence under one frozen recorded-source challenge. P2C7 adds
 one explicit recorded correction pair, preserves the prior record, and measures frozen-replay
 detection delay against a product target. P2C8 measures exact unaffected-claim identity
 preservation across real Brief contracts while holding correction semantics, source coverage, and
-claim count constant. The next bounded measurement work is calibration, another independently
-sourced correction event, or independent Market reproduction.
+claim count constant. P2C9 adds an exact withheld-result forecast record and derives a single-event
+Brier contribution while explicitly withholding any population-calibration or model-skill claim.
+The next bounded measurement work is another independently sourced correction event or independent
+Market reproduction.
 Separately reviewed opt-in network transport and P2D multi-source conflict/correction with LIVE
 inputs remain independent work. None of these steps may add autonomous publishing, delivery,
 persuasion, or action authority to a Domain Pack.

ROADMAP.md

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ source code into the platform.
 
 See the [0.9.0 release record](docs/releases/world-intelligence-p2c2-v0.9.0.md).
 
-## Candidate — P2C3–P2C8 measured feedback and product-owned outcomes
+## Candidate — P2C3–P2C9 measured feedback and product-owned outcomes
 
 - The exact 0.9.0 Brief and a World-owned source-only control pass through two matched reviewed
   export pairs under one frozen structural citation-coverage criterion.
@@ -46,6 +46,11 @@ See the [0.9.0 release record](docs/releases/world-intelligence-p2c2-v0.9.0.md).
   workflow, but treatment preserves both unaffected claim identities while the paraphrase-drift
   control preserves neither. Exact reviews expose the affected, replacement, stable, preserved,
   drifted, and unexpected claim sets without claiming general semantic equivalence.
+- A sixth frozen criterion records treatment and control probabilities before the correction result
+  is available and completes every reviewed forecast Action first. The later exact correction
+  resolves the binary event; exact reviews derive single-event Brier quality of `0.9375` and
+  `0.4375`. This proves forecast/result scoring and leakage-resistant record order, not historical
+  contemporaneity, probability generation by ACE, model skill, or population calibration.
 - This is source-checkout evidence against stacked Core candidates, not a released World capability, human
   benefit finding, causal claim, network-freshness proof, or applied governance change.
 
@@ -63,7 +68,10 @@ freezes exact correction linkage, prior-record preservation, and recorded-replay
 without claiming live monitoring or network-arrival latency. The stacked
 [P2C8 work packet](docs/design/world-intelligence-p2c8-correction-revision-stability-outcome-work-packet-v1.md)
 freezes correction-induced Brief revision stability without claiming live revision, population
-performance, or a general semantic-equivalence engine.
+performance, or a general semantic-equivalence engine. The stacked
+[P2C9 work packet](docs/design/world-intelligence-p2c9-forecast-calibration-outcome-work-packet-v1.md)
+freezes an exact forecast/result scoring boundary without claiming a historical forecast, model
+skill, or population calibration.
 
 ## Next — trustworthy live orientation
 

docs/audits/world-intelligence-p2c9-forecast-calibration-outcome-2026-08-10.md

@@ -0,0 +1,155 @@
+# World Intelligence P2C9 forecast-calibration outcome audit — 2026-08-10
+
+Status: **stacked candidate evidence only; not a release, SI4 pass, population-calibration proof,
+model-skill finding, or applied governance change**
+
+## Source identity
+
+- World base: P2C8 commit `129767d27d4af22dba292deb9e691375a0695bb8`
+- World branch: `codex/world-forecast-calibration`
+- Core dependency: exact observed-result candidate commit
+  `433e3d16c5458c975557dcd1552824fb959d4d12`
+- Released identity intentionally unchanged: `ace-domain-world-intelligence==0.9.0`,
+  `ace-core>=0.5.0,<0.6`
+
+## Exact point-in-time result
+
+The source fixture remains
+`sha256:2b81d3950cbfd127408eec227ec5cd249677a189120d6ca7b603d85d01074543`,
+with original Observation `observation:f1768d6f4191a86e245846a9a1e33768` and correction
+Observation `observation:fced5d3bbc3802c0285021142b332e29`.
+
+One source-checkout run recorded this exact availability order:
+
+```text
+original Observation available: 2026-08-11T03:15:24.023307Z
+forecast issued:               2026-08-11T03:15:24.024601Z
+latest reviewed Action done:   2026-08-11T03:15:24.057528Z
+correction result available:   2026-08-11T03:15:24.061041Z
+```
+
+The two forecast records were:
+
+```text
+treatment:
+  public_event_forecast:cadabc0db05387ffda21e167a7ae8a0c
+  sha256:cadabc0db05387ffda21e167a7ae8a0cfba830841d39b9141f4faa1cfca4f56c
+  probability: 0.75
+control:
+  public_event_forecast:2ebf7bd7c21363bcc6074bd654f020de
+  sha256:2ebf7bd7c21363bcc6074bd654f020de32a021280450cde5f889e92f24243488
+  probability: 0.25
+```
+
+Both records bind only the original Observation, the same target event, policy, source family,
+resolution rule, and window. Neither contains correction document `2021-10670`, the correction
+Observation coordinate, the eventual outcome, or an outcome score. The correction's exact immutable
+reference becomes available after all four forecast Actions complete.
+
+The reviews used World policy `world_recorded_binary_forecast_brier_quality` version `candidate-1`,
+material `sha256:759c13b02bff4b6d749ff20888a9fa7d4f3a67e6ef94439801d28d9d99abf4e7`:
+
+```text
+treatment review 1: forecast_resolution_review:dceee9319c93d8f4aaa1712f6ad4a736
+treatment review 2: forecast_resolution_review:388863533f4bceb49c49326c029048f9
+control review 1:   forecast_resolution_review:585c2385de9b45b3aeee5705a577cfb0
+control review 2:   forecast_resolution_review:6afe8778c77d840aca6b51d5a7198c3e
+
+binary event outcome: 1.0
+treatment Brier loss: 0.0625, 0.0625
+treatment quality:    0.9375, 0.9375
+control Brier loss:   0.5625, 0.5625
+control quality:      0.4375, 0.4375
+matched pairs: 2
+mean effect: 0.5
+classification: useful
+proposal action: promote
+proposal live effect: false
+historical replay: true
+replay reauthorization: false
+```
+
+The exact point-run evaluation was `impact_evaluation:d94ec6d786c8a4bbfb8038959ca7a7d4`
+with material
+`sha256:d94ec6d786c8a4bbfb8038959ca7a7d45567d4ddcdb3b6c431b8cdc2dac84c47`.
+The exact non-effective proposal was
+`impact_governance_proposal:260db0b19aff6fe01cb8f0fbc81f3327` with material
+`sha256:260db0b19aff6fe01cb8f0fbc81f33278392794d8652a41442751bfebe79141f`.
+
+These point-run identities deliberately include exact record-availability and reviewed-action time.
+Historical replay in the same durable store returns those exact identities without reauthorization.
+Fresh hosts reproduce the source content identities, target definition, probabilities, event
+outcome, Brier material, classification, and proposal semantics; they do not pretend independent
+wall clocks are the same immutable availability coordinate.
+
+## Verification
+
+The frozen World dependency versions plus the stacked Core candidate and separately packaged
+reference action adapter produced:
+
+```text
+python -B -m pytest domain_packs/tests/test_p2c3_measured_feedback.py \
+  domain_packs/tests/test_p2c4_reviewed_impact_disposition.py \
+  domain_packs/tests/test_p2c5_citation_correctness_outcome.py \
+  domain_packs/tests/test_p2c6_contradiction_attention_outcome.py \
+  domain_packs/tests/test_p2c7_correction_detection_delay_outcome.py \
+  domain_packs/tests/test_p2c8_correction_revision_stability_outcome.py \
+  domain_packs/tests/test_p2c9_forecast_calibration_outcome.py -q --tb=short
+25 passed in 8.59s
+
+python -B -m pytest -q --tb=short
+108 passed in 22.22s
+
+python -B -m pytest adapters/federal_register_source/tests -q --tb=short
+26 passed in 0.22s
+
+python -B -m pytest tests/test_release_contract.py -q --tb=short
+7 passed in 0.04s
+
+# Installed public ace-core==0.5.0; candidate tests skip explicitly.
+python -B -m pytest -q --tb=short -rs
+83 passed, 25 skipped in 13.72s
+
+ruff check --no-cache <P2C9 changed Python files>
+PASS
+
+ruff format --check --no-cache <P2C9 changed Python files>
+4 files already formatted
+
+uv build --out-dir /tmp/ace-p2c9-dist-20260810
+Successfully built unchanged 0.9.0 source distribution and inert data-only wheel
+
+git diff --check
+PASS
+```
+
+The twenty-five public-Core skips are explicit candidate boundaries: P2C3 through P2C9 require
+unreleased stacked Core measured-impact contracts. The public P2C2 journey and every released
+boundary remain green. The wheel contains 45 inert Domain Pack JSON/metadata files, no Python or
+entry points, and retains `ace-core>=0.5.0,<0.6`.
+
+Repository-wide Ruff remains an inherited release-hygiene blocker. With the same locked Ruff
+version, both the P2C8 parent and this P2C9 worktree report exactly 14 lint findings and 12 format
+targets. Scoped P2C9 checks and `git diff --check` are green. This packet does not rewrite unrelated
+history, but release closeout must reconcile the repository-wide gate before publication.
+
+## Claim boundary
+
+The World forecast contract forbids extra result material and requires every basis reference to be
+available at issuance. The review exact-loads the forecast, original Observation, and later
+correction Observation, derives the binary event from their explicit correction link, and derives
+the Brier contribution from probability and event outcome. The Core Outcome points to that exact
+review. Historical replay requires no new authority, and the proposal remains non-effective,
+non-selectable, and unapplied.
+
+This is a single-event probabilistic score over a held-out recorded result. It is not an empirical
+calibration curve, population reliability estimate, historically contemporaneous forecast, ACE
+probability-generation proof, model-skill finding, live-monitoring result, source-independence
+finding, causal estimate, general Brief-quality score, legal-truth claim, or human-benefit result.
+
+## Remaining work
+
+A materially different real source, independent Market reproduction, combined-main review/CI,
+public Core artifacts, repository-wide lint/format reconciliation, security/release checks, and
+opt-in live transport remain future bounded work. Core issue #49 F1, F3, and F5 still require
+explicit 0.6 release-owner disposition; this World packet neither implements nor re-dates them.