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Custom Cross-validation function for Prophet: Automatic Forecasting Procedure

Original repository

The original code, together with instructions to install the package, is available at Prophet: Automatic Forecasting Procedure.

Original paper: Sean J. Taylor, Benjamin Letham (2018) Forecasting at scale. The American Statistician 72(1):37-45.

Custom cross-validation function

The default cross_validation function available in Prophet produces daily date range by default. Internally Timedeltas are used to generate the cutoffs instead of the daterange employed in the make_future_dataframe() function. Timedelta indeed expects a different set of frequencies, raging from weeks to nanoseconds.
This is not suitable for all the dataset we can work with. In the Airpassengers dataset, for example, the number of observed passengers are aggregated on the first day of each month and we would like to forecast the number of passengers for the next horizon months - with period - and keep the first day of the month as a reference for the time index.
A combination of horizon and period expressed in weeks or days will generate a misalignment.

We introduce a custom cross-validation function - mirroring the original one - which preserves the model.history frequency while generating the cross-validation Dataframe.

Examples

In the notebooks folder you can find an example on the Airpassengers dataset forecasting directly over a monthly horizon instead of daily.

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Custom implementation of the cross-validation function for Prophet

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