Qualitative Shock Mapping for Quantitative Production Network Models: Evidence from Iran-Related Hostilities

https://github.com/Wonseong620/Causal_Network_Map

The research question would be: "How can qualitative news about regional hostilities be converted into structured sectoral shock indicators, and how can these indicators supplement quantitative models of production network spillovers?"

In periods of regional hostilities, economic shocks are often observed first through qualitative evidence rather than official statistics. News reports, policy announcements, market commentary, and firm-level disclosures provide early information about disruptions, but this information is rarely organized in a form that can be directly used in quantitative models. This study addresses that gap by developing a news-based sectoral shock-mapping framework. The framework translates qualitative evidence into structured sectoral shock indicators, links them to input-output sectors, and uses dynamic network methods to examine propagation across the production system. The resulting approach serves as a supplement to quantitative modelling by improving the identification, timing, and sectoral allocation of geopolitical shocks.