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Melbourne Public Transport Accessibility Analysis (2021 GTFS)

1. Project Overview

This project analyses structural inequality in Melbourne’s public transport network using suburb-level accessibility metrics derived from 2021 GTFS data.

Rather than relying solely on stop counts, the analysis integrates:

  • Stop Density (infrastructure provision)
  • Route Coverage (network penetration)
  • Service Intensity (weekday service supply)

The objective is to quantify structural access gaps, identify under-served suburbs, and translate findings into decision-ready reporting outputs.


2. Business Problem

Public transport investment decisions are often made without a standardised, suburb-level accessibility framework.

This results in:

  • Uneven service distribution across growth corridors
  • Infrastructure-heavy but network-light configurations
  • Suburbs with high population or land area but structurally limited connectivity

Stakeholders require data-backed evidence to prioritise intervention zones rather than relying on anecdotal infrastructure counts.


3. Analytical Objectives

  1. Quantify suburb-level public transport accessibility
  2. Identify bottom-quartile structural deficit zones
  3. Compare stop density vs route coverage as drivers of service intensity
  4. Translate technical findings into executive-ready visual reporting

4. Core Analytical Questions

Q1. Where are structural access deficits located?

Which suburbs fall into the bottom quartile for:

  • Stop Density
  • Route Coverage
  • Service Intensity

Are deficits isolated or geographically concentrated?

Q2. Does stop abundance guarantee service intensity?

Is higher physical stop density associated with higher weekday service provision?

Does infrastructure presence equate to effective accessibility?

Q3. Which structural factor better explains service inequality?

Between:

  • Stop Density
  • Route Coverage

Which metric better explains variation in weekday service intensity?


5. Key Metrics

  1. Stop Density

     Number of stops per km² within each SA2 suburb.  Captures infrastructure concentration.

  2. Service Intensity (Weekday Average)

     Average weekday stop-time events per km².  Captures frequency and temporal supply.

  3. Route Coverage

     Number of distinct routes serving each SA2 per km².  Captures network penetration and diversity.


6. Methodology & Data Engineering

Database Construction

  • PostgreSQL database environment setup
  • GTFS dastaset ingestion and relational schema design
  • ERD-based table normalisation
  • Fact table creation for suburb-level metrics

Analytical Workflow

  • Spatial joins (GTFS stops <-> SA2 boundaries)
  • Aggregation queries using SQL
  • Bottom-quartile thresholding
  • Correlation and regression diagnostics
  • Structured analytical reporting (poster format)

All metric calculatinos were implemented in SQL (PostgreSQL).


7. Structural Findings

7.1 Problem Identification (Poster 1)

poster1.png

Two distinct structural deficit patterns were identified:

Infrastructure Deficit Zones

  • Extremely low stop density per km²
  • Geographically concentrated in outer-growth suburbs

Netowrk Coverage Gaps

  • Limited route penetration despite available infrastructure
  • Network design limitations rather than stop scarcity

These suburbs represent priority intervention zones where baseline accessibility is structurally constrained.

7.2 Structural Drivers (Poster 2)

poster 2

Correlation analysis shows:

  • Route Coverage explains ~88% of variation in service intensity
  • Stop Density explains ~57%

Key Insight:

Network structure is a stronger determinant of service intensity than physical stop abundance.

High stop density alone does not guarantee high service levels. Connectivity and route penetration drive effective accessibility.

7.3 Spatial Evidence (Poster 3)

poster 3

Spatial mapping reveals:

  • Service intensity deficits cluster in outer-growth corridors
  • Route coverage gaps appear along northern and eastern expansion fronts
  • Stop density shortages are concentrated in low-density fringe municipalities

Transport inequality is geographically structured rather than randomly distributed.

Outer suburbs experience compounded structural disadvantages across multiple indicators.


8. Business Implications

  • Infrastructure expansion alone is insufficient
  • Network redesign and route penetration strategies may yield stronger impact
  • Investment prioritisation should target structurally constrained growth corridors
  • Accessibility policy should shift from asset-count metrics to network-efficiency metrics

This analysis supports evidence-based transport equity planning.


9. Deliverables

  • SQL-based metric calculation scripts
  • PostgreSQL relational schema & ERD
  • Analytical poster series (Executive reporting format)
  • Tableau dashboards & geospatial visualisations
  • GitHub repository for reproducibility

10. Tech Stack

  • PostgreSQL (data processing & aggregation)
  • SQL (analytics & feature engineering)
  • Tableau (executive dashboards)
  • R (geospatial visualisation)
  • GitHub (documentation & reproducibility)

11. Data Sources

  • Public Transport Victoria (GTFS, 2021)
  • ABS boundary data (SA2 / suburb level)

Historical data used to demonstrate methodology and analytical capability.


Summary

This porject demonstrates:

  • End-to-end analytica workflow design
  • SQL-based metric enginerring at scale
  • Structural inequality analysis
  • Business-oriented rerporting & visual storytelling
  • Translation of spatial analytics into policy-ready insight

About

Transport accessibility across 360 Melbourne suburbs and 59,000+ stops. Route coverage R² 0.88 vs stop density 0.57. SQL/PostGIS, Tableau

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