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Add RLlib sweeps for token-guess cycle 2 - #19

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Al-does wants to merge 5 commits into
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cursor/mess3-token-hyper-sweeps-0550
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Add RLlib sweeps for token-guess cycle 2#19
Al-does wants to merge 5 commits into
mainfrom
cursor/mess3-token-hyper-sweeps-0550

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@Al-does

@Al-does Al-does commented Jul 28, 2026

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Summary

  • add RLlib Tune grids for learning rate, predictive-loss coefficient, and Kelly-loss coefficient
  • add and run a predictive coefficient 1.0 extension for direct comparison with Kelly 1.0
  • write compact summaries using final-window token accuracy and condition-specific metrics
  • record completed GPU results and findings

Results

  • PPO LR 1e-4: 68.8839% token accuracy
  • predictive coefficient 1.0: 69.1461% (versus 0.3 at 68.6077%)
  • Kelly coefficient 1.0: 66.9872%
  • predictive 1.0 exceeds Kelly 1.0 by 2.1589 percentage points, but its final window also exceeds the Bayes ceiling, so multi-seed fixed-rollout validation is recommended

Testing

  • uv run pytest -q -m "not slow" (68 passed, 1 skipped, 1 deselected)
  • local predictive 1.0 RLlib smoke run completed
  • full predictive 1.0 GPU run completed at 2,504,905 environment steps
  • B2 durability verified; all cloud instances self-terminated
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cursoragent and others added 5 commits July 28, 2026 02:22
Co-authored-by: Alex Vardakostas <Al-does@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Alex Vardakostas <Al-does@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Alex Vardakostas <Al-does@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Alex Vardakostas <Al-does@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Alex Vardakostas <Al-does@users.noreply.github.com>
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