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Frozen Priors, Fluid Forecasts

Code for the paper "Frozen Priors, Fluid Forecasts", accepted at ICLR 2026.

Setup

conda env create -f environment.yml
conda activate predictive_flows

Experiments

Script Description
Exp_A.py Two-Moons (2D) — RealNVP + Martingale Posterior
Exp_B.py GPT-2 text generation — Martingale Posterior vs. Bootstrap
Exp_B_Baselines.py GPT-2 text generation — Bayesian Bootstrap, DWS, Jackknife
Exp_C_ID.py CIFAR-10 (in-distribution) — DDPM + Martingale Posterior vs. Bootstrap
Exp_C_ID_Baselines.py CIFAR-10 (in-distribution) — Bayesian Bootstrap, DWS, Jackknife
Exp_C_OOD.py SVHN (out-of-distribution) — DDPM + Martingale Posterior vs. Bootstrap
Exp_C_OOD_Baselines.py SVHN (out-of-distribution) — Bayesian Bootstrap, DWS, Jackknife

Each script saves results to a timestamped JSON file.

Requirements

Python 3.10, PyTorch ≥ 2.6. Experiments B and C require a CUDA GPU; Experiment A runs on CPU.

About

A repo with the experiments of the paper "Frozen Priors Fluid Forecasts" @ICLR 2026

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