diff --git a/.changeset/shallow-routing-initial-effect.md b/.changeset/shallow-routing-initial-effect.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..2f28cba13fab
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.changeset/shallow-routing-initial-effect.md
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+---
+'@sveltejs/kit': patch
+---
+
+fix: allow `pushState` and `replaceState` to be called during initial render
diff --git a/packages/kit/src/runtime/client/client.js b/packages/kit/src/runtime/client/client.js
index c02e1274509d..075a88603de6 100644
--- a/packages/kit/src/runtime/client/client.js
+++ b/packages/kit/src/runtime/client/client.js
@@ -278,6 +278,8 @@ let current = {
 /** this being true means we SSR'd */
 let hydrated = false;
 let started = false;
+/** True once shallow routing can be used, which is before `started` since effects run during initial render (#15927) */
+let router_initialized = false;
 let autoscroll = true;
 let updating = false;
 let is_navigating = false;
@@ -719,6 +721,10 @@ async function initialize(result, target, hydrate) {
 	update(/** @type {import('@sveltejs/kit').Page} */ (result.props.page));
 	current_tree = result.props.tree;
 
+	// effects flush synchronously while the root component is created below,
+	// so anything shallow routing needs must be ready before this point
+	router_initialized = true;
+
 	// TODO: use mount()
 	root = new Root({
 		target,
@@ -2572,7 +2578,7 @@ export function pushState(url, state) {
 	}
 
 	if (DEV) {
-		if (!started) {
+		if (!router_initialized) {
 			throw new Error('Cannot call pushState(...) before router is initialized');
 		}
 
@@ -2590,7 +2596,8 @@ export function pushState(url, state) {
 	const opts = {
 		[HISTORY_INDEX]: (current_history_index += 1),
 		[NAVIGATION_INDEX]: current_navigation_index,
-		[PAGE_URL_KEY]: page.url.href,
+		// untracked so that effects calling this function don't depend on `page.url`
+		[PAGE_URL_KEY]: svelte.untrack(() => page.url.href),
 		[STATES_KEY]: state
 	};
 
@@ -2615,7 +2622,7 @@ export function replaceState(url, state) {
 	}
 
 	if (DEV) {
-		if (!started) {
+		if (!router_initialized) {
 			throw new Error('Cannot call replaceState(...) before router is initialized');
 		}
 
@@ -2631,7 +2638,8 @@ export function replaceState(url, state) {
 	const opts = {
 		[HISTORY_INDEX]: current_history_index,
 		[NAVIGATION_INDEX]: current_navigation_index,
-		[PAGE_URL_KEY]: page.url.href,
+		// untracked so that effects calling this function don't depend on `page.url`
+		[PAGE_URL_KEY]: svelte.untrack(() => page.url.href),
 		[STATES_KEY]: state
 	};
 
diff --git a/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/app.d.ts b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/app.d.ts
index e3198c7bd1c7..3fb8f648b0d8 100644
--- a/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/app.d.ts
+++ b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/app.d.ts
@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ declare global {
 		interface PageState {
 			active?: boolean;
 			count?: number;
+			initial?: boolean;
 		}
 	}
 }
diff --git a/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/routes/shallow-routing/push-state/initial-effect/+page.svelte b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/routes/shallow-routing/push-state/initial-effect/+page.svelte
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..8204f6744594
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/routes/shallow-routing/push-state/initial-effect/+page.svelte
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+<script>
+	import { pushState } from '$app/navigation';
+	import { page } from '$app/state';
+
+	$effect(() => {
+		pushState('', { initial: true });
+	});
+</script>
+
+<p>initial: {page.state.initial ?? false}</p>
diff --git a/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/routes/shallow-routing/replace-state/initial-effect/+page.svelte b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/routes/shallow-routing/replace-state/initial-effect/+page.svelte
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..2669ad537773
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/src/routes/shallow-routing/replace-state/initial-effect/+page.svelte
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+<script>
+	import { replaceState } from '$app/navigation';
+	import { page } from '$app/state';
+
+	$effect(() => {
+		replaceState('', { initial: true });
+	});
+</script>
+
+<p>initial: {page.state.initial ?? false}</p>
diff --git a/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/test/client.test.js b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/test/client.test.js
index 143244dcba84..776d99379112 100644
--- a/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/test/client.test.js
+++ b/packages/kit/test/apps/basics/test/client.test.js
@@ -1801,6 +1801,19 @@ test.describe('Shallow routing', () => {
 		await expect(page.locator('p')).toHaveText('active: false');
 		await expect(page.locator('span')).not.toHaveText(now);
 	});
+
+	test('pushState can be called in $effect during initial render', async ({ page }) => {
+		await page.goto('/shallow-routing/push-state/initial-effect');
+		await expect(page.locator('p')).toHaveText('initial: true');
+
+		await page.goBack();
+		await expect(page.locator('p')).toHaveText('initial: false');
+	});
+
+	test('replaceState can be called in $effect during initial render', async ({ page }) => {
+		await page.goto('/shallow-routing/replace-state/initial-effect');
+		await expect(page.locator('p')).toHaveText('initial: true');
+	});
 });
 
 test.describe('reroute', () => {