Regenerate Games 4-5 Finals live replays for the retrospective

[sanjay-dilip]

Problem

The committed replay export data/deploy/finals_live_predictions.csv contains play-by-play win-probability rows for Finals Games 1-3 only (504 / 489 / 480 events; file last updated June 10, 2026, the night of Game 4). The cloud refresh never captured Games 4 and 5 before it died, so the Finals retrospective page (#3, PR #4) shows "not part of the committed replay export" for those games instead of replay charts, and the exported PNGs cover Games 1 and 3 only.

outputs/reports/nba_finals_case_study_summary.csv already contains the locked live start/final leans and results for all five games, so the retrospective's metrics (live final lean 5/5, opening lean 1/5) are unaffected. This issue is about the missing per-event replay curves only.

Fix

Regenerate the Games 4-5 replays locally from the NBA API and re-export the deploy-safe file:

1. python run_pipeline.py --mode collect_playoff_games --seasons 2025-26
2. python run_pipeline.py --mode collect_playoff_play_by_play --seasons 2025-26
3. python run_pipeline.py --mode run_playoff_case_study_pipeline --seasons 2025-26
4. python run_pipeline.py --mode export_finals_live_predictions_for_deploy

Guardrails

• Pre-game predictions and correctness values in outputs/reports/finals_upcoming_predictions.csv are locked history (fixed in Freeze 2025-26 Finals showcase into a retrospective #3) and must not change. Diff the report CSVs after the pipeline run and restore any prediction columns the rebuild overwrites, mirroring restore_completed_pregame_predictions() in scripts/cloud_run_refresh.py.
• The live start/final leans for Games 1-3 already committed in nba_finals_case_study_summary.csv must be byte-identical after regeneration; scoring is deterministic given the same model artifacts, so any diff there is a red flag.
• No retraining. Same committed model artifacts (models/*.pkl).

Acceptance criteria

• data/deploy/finals_live_predictions.csv contains all five completed games.
• The retrospective page renders replay charts for Games 4 and 5 (verify via streamlit.testing.v1 AppTest, raw output pasted in the PR).
• Optionally add Game 5 (the clincher) as a PNG in assets/screenshots/.
• Locked prediction values unchanged (git diff of the report CSVs shown in the PR).