diff --git a/src/csim/data/reality_2026.yaml b/src/csim/data/reality_2026.yaml index 222c956..fcfdf75 100644 --- a/src/csim/data/reality_2026.yaml +++ b/src/csim/data/reality_2026.yaml @@ -1,131 +1,69 @@ -# Real-world values as of approximately 2026 -# Each value represents the best available estimate for the state of the world -# Sources cited in comments per dimension +# Real-world values — auto-updated by reality stream +# Last update: 2026-07-06 13:15 UTC year: 2026 # ── Geopolitical ── -# Pew Research Center polarization surveys; partisan antipathy at record highs us_polarization: 0.72 -# EU post-Brexit, Ukraine solidarity but internal populist tensions (Hungary, etc.) eu_cohesion: 0.55 -# Gallup US Global Leadership Approval; declined under polarization and -# inconsistent foreign policy signals us_global_standing: 0.55 -# CSIS/Lowy China Power Index; steady military/economic rise, Belt & Road china_power_index: 0.52 -# Russia weakened by Ukraine war sanctions, military losses, but regime intact -russia_stability: 0.30 -# Ongoing conflicts: Yemen, Syria aftermath, Israel-Gaza/Lebanon escalation 2023-24 +russia_stability: 0.29 middle_east_stability: 0.25 -# India GDP growth ~7%, demographic dividend, G20 presidency 2023 -india_power_index: 0.30 -# Mixed: Argentina crisis, Brazil recovery, regional instability -latin_america_stability: 0.42 +india_power_index: 0.3 +latin_america_stability: 0.4 # ── Economic ── -# World Bank global GDP growth ~3% (post-pandemic recovery, but below trend) global_gdp_growth_modifier: 1.03 -# World Inequality Lab; Gini rising in many economies, wealth concentration inequality_index: 0.62 -# US federal debt ~120% of GDP (CBO estimates) -us_debt_gdp_ratio: 1.20 -# CoinMarketCap total crypto market cap ~$2-3T range +us_debt_gdp_ratio: 1.2 crypto_market_cap_trillion: 2.5 -# Post-COVID supply chain diversification (friend-shoring), but still fragile supply_chain_resilience: 0.55 # ── Technology ── -# AI development roughly 3-5 years ahead of year-2000 extrapolations -# GPT-4 (2023), Claude 3 (2024), rapid LLM progress -ai_development_year_offset: 4 -# Freedom House Internet Freedom report; declining globally since 2015 +ai_development_year_offset: 5 internet_freedom_index: 0.58 -# ITU/DataReportal: ~62% of world population on social media social_media_penetration: 0.62 -# Cochlear implants, prosthetics, early Neuralink trials — still niche human_augmentation_prevalence: 0.03 -# ISS still operational, Artemis program, SpaceX Starship, commercial LEO space_development_index: 0.08 # ── Security ── -# Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds; Ukraine war, -# nuclear rhetoric, Middle East escalation -nuclear_risk_level: 0.30 -# Global Terrorism Index (IEP); post-ISIS decline but lone wolf threats persist +nuclear_risk_level: 0.32 terrorism_threat_index: 0.25 -# Facial recognition, NSO Group/Pegasus, China social credit, expanding globally -surveillance_state_index: 0.40 -# Cybersecurity Ventures: global cybercrime damages ~$8T annually by 2023, -# growing ~15% YoY +surveillance_state_index: 0.4 global_cyber_damage_annual_b: 10.0 -# Ukraine war drones, autonomous systems proliferating rapidly -drone_warfare_prevalence: 0.25 +drone_warfare_prevalence: 0.27 # ── Climate / Environment ── -# NASA GISS: 2023 was +1.17C, 2024 ~+1.3C above pre-industrial; -# relative to year-2000 baseline of 0.6 -climate_temp_anomaly: 1.30 -# IEA: renewables ~30% of global electricity generation by 2024; -# as share of total primary energy ~15% +climate_temp_anomaly: 1.3 renewable_energy_share: 0.15 -# NASA sea level data: ~100mm rise since 2000 (3.4mm/yr average) -sea_level_rise_meters: 0.10 -# WWF Living Planet Index: ~69% decline in wildlife populations since 1970; -# normalized index declining +sea_level_rise_meters: 0.1 biodiversity_index: 0.55 -# UN World Water Development Report; increasing stress from climate + population water_stress_index: 0.38 -# Global Food Security Index (EIU); pandemic + Ukraine war disrupted supply food_security_index: 0.72 -# NSIDC: September Arctic sea ice extent ~4.2M km2 vs ~6.3M km2 in 1980s; -# normalized relative to 2000 arctic_ice_status: 0.68 # ── Human / Social ── -# WHO: COVID-19 ~7M official deaths (likely 15-20M excess); using official global_pandemic_deaths: 7000000 -# Uppsala Conflict Data Program: cumulative since 2000; Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, -# Ethiopia, Sudan, etc. -conflict_deaths: 1500000 -# CDC: cumulative US opioid overdose deaths ~700K through 2024 +conflict_deaths: 1503000 opioid_deaths_cumulative: 700000 -# Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index 2024: global average ~5.2/10 global_democracy_index: 0.52 -# Pew Research: trust in US government near historic lows (~20% trust) us_institutional_trust: 0.25 -# Oxford Internet Institute; deepfakes, AI-generated content, election interference misinformation_severity: 0.65 -# Slow progress on policing reform, DEI backlash, Supreme Court affirmative action ruling racial_justice_index: 0.42 -# World Economic Forum Gender Gap Report 2024: ~68.5% closed gender_equity_index: 0.52 -# CDC: US life expectancy dropped ~2.5 years during COVID, partially recovered; -# net ~-1 year from 2000 baseline trajectory us_life_expectancy_delta: -1.0 -# UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision global_population_billions: 8.1 -# UN median age estimates for 2025 median_age_global: 30.5 -# McKinsey/WEF estimates: ~15% of work hours could be automated with current AI automation_displacement: 0.15 # ── Governance / Structure ── -# Mixed governance models; technocratic vs populist trends governance_model: 0.48 -# Partisan division, institutional stress, but system persists us_unity_index: 0.35 -# EU coordination improved on Ukraine, but no federation movement europe_federation_index: 0.25 -# Xi consolidated power; third term, anti-corruption, zero-COVID reversal -china_regime_type: 0.10 -# Saudi Vision 2030, UAE diversification; still heavily oil-dependent +china_regime_type: 0.1 middle_east_post_oil: 0.15 -# Arctic Council suspended Russia; governance fragmented arctic_sovereignty_resolved: 0.08 -# AfCFTA launched, digital transformation, but infrastructure gaps remain africa_development_index: 0.32 # ── Existential ── -# Cumulative existential risk from nuclear, climate, pandemic, AI; -# modest but non-trivial accumulation over 26 years existential_risk_cumulative: 0.08 diff --git a/src/csim/data/reality_stream_log.json b/src/csim/data/reality_stream_log.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b446e62 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/csim/data/reality_stream_log.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +[ + { + "timestamp": "2026-07-06T13:15:39.907865+00:00", + "dimension_updates": { + "nuclear_risk_level": 0.32, + "drone_warfare_prevalence": 0.27, + "russia_stability": 0.29, + "latin_america_stability": 0.4, + "ai_development_year_offset": 5, + "conflict_deaths": 1503000 + }, + "new_nodes": [], + "reasoning": "Week of 2026-06-29 to 07-06. Russia escalated massively against Kyiv (Jul 2 and Jul 6 barrages: 351 drones + 68 missiles in one night, all 29 ballistic missiles hitting through failing air defenses; ~40+ civilians killed), while Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian oil/fuel infrastructure caused severe shortages and pressured Moscow, and Poland scrambled jets / Finland restricted airspace (NATO spillover risk): lifts nuclear_risk_level and drone_warfare_prevalence, nudges russia_stability down, and increments cumulative conflict_deaths. Venezuela's twin M7.2/M7.5 earthquakes (Jun 24-25, ~2,954 confirmed dead, 41,000 missing, $6.7B / ~6% of GDP damage, strongest in a century) drag latin_america_stability down as the toll climbed through the week. A cluster of frontier AI releases (Claude Sonnet 5 on Jun 30, GPT-5.6 preview, Grok 4.5 at 1.5T parameters) plus record $510B H1-2026 VC and Nvidia's ~$1T chip-demand pipeline mark continued acceleration, so ai_development_year_offset ticks from 4 to 5 (also correcting a baseline that still described the 2024 GPT-4/Claude-3 era). Deliberately excluded: the Iran/Khamenei state funeral this week is the ceremonial coda to a war that ended with a mid-June ceasefire (oil already back to ~$72), so it is outside this week's window; equity markets sat at record highs with only routine AI-stock profit-taking, no systemic move." + } +] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/web/reality.json b/web/reality.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3180535 --- /dev/null +++ b/web/reality.json @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +{ + "generated": "2026-07-06T13:15:39.914116+00:00", + "reality": { + "year": 2026, + "us_polarization": 0.72, + "eu_cohesion": 0.55, + "us_global_standing": 0.55, + "china_power_index": 0.52, + "russia_stability": 0.29, + "middle_east_stability": 0.25, + "india_power_index": 0.3, + "latin_america_stability": 0.4, + "global_gdp_growth_modifier": 1.03, + "inequality_index": 0.62, + "us_debt_gdp_ratio": 1.2, + "crypto_market_cap_trillion": 2.5, + "supply_chain_resilience": 0.55, + "ai_development_year_offset": 5, + "internet_freedom_index": 0.58, + "social_media_penetration": 0.62, + "human_augmentation_prevalence": 0.03, + "space_development_index": 0.08, + "nuclear_risk_level": 0.32, + "terrorism_threat_index": 0.25, + "surveillance_state_index": 0.4, + "global_cyber_damage_annual_b": 10.0, + "drone_warfare_prevalence": 0.27, + "climate_temp_anomaly": 1.3, + "renewable_energy_share": 0.15, + "sea_level_rise_meters": 0.1, + "biodiversity_index": 0.55, + "water_stress_index": 0.38, + "food_security_index": 0.72, + "arctic_ice_status": 0.68, + "global_pandemic_deaths": 7000000, + "conflict_deaths": 1503000, + "opioid_deaths_cumulative": 700000, + "global_democracy_index": 0.52, + "us_institutional_trust": 0.25, + "misinformation_severity": 0.65, + "racial_justice_index": 0.42, + "gender_equity_index": 0.52, + "us_life_expectancy_delta": -1.0, + "global_population_billions": 8.1, + "median_age_global": 30.5, + "automation_displacement": 0.15, + "governance_model": 0.48, + "us_unity_index": 0.35, + "europe_federation_index": 0.25, + "china_regime_type": 0.1, + "middle_east_post_oil": 0.15, + "arctic_sovereignty_resolved": 0.08, + "africa_development_index": 0.32, + "existential_risk_cumulative": 0.08 + }, + "stream_log": [ + { + "timestamp": "2026-07-06T13:15:39.907865+00:00", + "dimension_updates": { + "nuclear_risk_level": 0.32, + "drone_warfare_prevalence": 0.27, + "russia_stability": 0.29, + "latin_america_stability": 0.4, + "ai_development_year_offset": 5, + "conflict_deaths": 1503000 + }, + "new_nodes": [], + "reasoning": "Week of 2026-06-29 to 07-06. Russia escalated massively against Kyiv (Jul 2 and Jul 6 barrages: 351 drones + 68 missiles in one night, all 29 ballistic missiles hitting through failing air defenses; ~40+ civilians killed), while Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian oil/fuel infrastructure caused severe shortages and pressured Moscow, and Poland scrambled jets / Finland restricted airspace (NATO spillover risk): lifts nuclear_risk_level and drone_warfare_prevalence, nudges russia_stability down, and increments cumulative conflict_deaths. Venezuela's twin M7.2/M7.5 earthquakes (Jun 24-25, ~2,954 confirmed dead, 41,000 missing, $6.7B / ~6% of GDP damage, strongest in a century) drag latin_america_stability down as the toll climbed through the week. A cluster of frontier AI releases (Claude Sonnet 5 on Jun 30, GPT-5.6 preview, Grok 4.5 at 1.5T parameters) plus record $510B H1-2026 VC and Nvidia's ~$1T chip-demand pipeline mark continued acceleration, so ai_development_year_offset ticks from 4 to 5 (also correcting a baseline that still described the 2024 GPT-4/Claude-3 era). Deliberately excluded: the Iran/Khamenei state funeral this week is the ceremonial coda to a war that ended with a mid-June ceasefire (oil already back to ~$72), so it is outside this week's window; equity markets sat at record highs with only routine AI-stock profit-taking, no systemic move." + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file