diff --git a/_freeze/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index/execute-results/html.json index 7b4ab52..cd866de 100644 --- a/_freeze/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index/execute-results/html.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { - "hash": "62ed7553099d369e6824d4e79bcd0c82", + "hash": "d280b0662606ffbd14d17f22d7f8a5b2", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\ntitle: \"2026 Q1 Edmonton building permit report\"\ndate: \"2026-04-16\"\nauthor: \"Jacob Dawang\"\ncategories: [housing, edmonton, zoning]\ndescription: \"A first look at 2026 building permits through Q1, tracking whether Edmonton will continue the record-breaking momentum of 2025.\"\nlink-external-newwindow: true\nlink-external-icon: false\nexecute:\n cache: false\n---\n\n2025 was a [banner year for Edmonton housing](../zbr-two-year-review/index.qmd). We permitted over 17,500 homes, a record, found the missing middle, and built closer to transit than ever before. The question now is whether 2026 will continue that momentum, or whether 2025 was a one-time peak.\n\nWith Q1 2026 data in hand, we can take a first look. In the rest of this post, I compare Q1 2026 permits year-over-year against prior Q1s, project what a full 2026 might look like if this pace holds, look at which neighbourhoods are seeing the most RS Zone infill, and check whether Edmonton is continuing to build close to transit.\n\n## Key facts\n\n\n\n- Edmonton issued building permits for **2,844** homes in Q1 2026. Annualized, that projects to roughly **13,082** homes for the full year.\n\n- Q1 2026 is **13.2% lower** than Q1 2025, when 3,277 homes were permitted.\n\n- **Fiveplex to Eightplex** projects led all categories by homes added in Q1 2026.\n\n- **38%** of homes were permitted within 800m of an existing or under-construction LRT stop, compared to 30% in 2025 (full year).\n\n## Data\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\nEdmonton's [general building permit data](https://data.edmonton.ca/Urban-Planning-Economy/General-Building-Permits/24uj-dj8v/about_data) tracks building permits since 2009, with columns for building type, work type, location, units added, and more. The 2026 data was downloaded on April 14, 2026, and filtered to Q1 (January through March) to exclude incomplete April data.\n\nEdmonton's [property assessment data](https://data.edmonton.ca/City-Administration/Property-Assessment-Data-Current-Calendar-Year-/q7d6-ambg/about_data) provides one row per property with zoning and neighbourhood information, used to calculate how many RS-zoned properties exist per neighbourhood.\n\nFor background on the RS Zone and ZBR, see the [two-year review post](../zbr-two-year-review/index.qmd).\n\nI want to project 2026 total numbers, but we only have Q1 data so far. \nSimilar to my [previous post in mid-2025](../../2025/real-rs-story/index.qmd), I estimate an annualization multiplier from historical data. For each year from 2009 to 2025, I calculate the ratio of full-year units to Q1 units, and use the median as the multiplier.\nAny figure that shows 2026 projected numbers uses this simple adjustment.\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Historical ratio of full-year to Q1 residential building permit units](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-multiplier-1.png){#fig-q1-multiplier width=672}\n:::\n:::\n\n\nThe median Q1 multiplier is **4.6×**, as shown in @fig-q1-multiplier, meaning a full year typically produces 4.6 times the homes permitted in Q1 alone. All 2026 projections in this post use this multiplier.\n\n## Year-over-year Q1 comparison\n\nThe most direct way to compare Q1 2026 to prior years is to look at Q1 data across all years, stripping out seasonality entirely. @fig-q1-yoy-units shows units added in Q1 for each year since 2009, broken down by project type.\n2026 is off to a strong start, with a steady number of homes permitted in Q1.\nSimilar to 2025, we continue to see steady growth of the 5-8 unit category, which is firmly established as an important part of Edmonton's housing supply.\n\n\n::: {#fig-q1-yoy-units .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-units-1.png){#fig-q1-yoy-units-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-units-2.png){#fig-q1-yoy-units-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nTotal homes permitted in Q1 by project type, 2009–2026\n:::\n\n\n@fig-q1-yoy-permits shows the same Q1 data as raw permit counts rather than units, a complementary view for understanding how many discrete projects are driving each category.\n\n\n::: {#fig-q1-yoy-permits .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-permits-1.png){#fig-q1-yoy-permits-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-permits-2.png){#fig-q1-yoy-permits-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nNumber of building permits issued in Q1 by project type, 2009–2026\n:::\n\n\nLooking at the number of homes by neighbourhood type, @fig-q1-yoy-nbhd shows continued historical levels of supply in mature neighbourhoods, driven by the 5-8 unit rowhome.\nOutside the Henday, building permits have gone down in this Q1, though that could be due to the volatility of the large apartment category.\n\n\n::: {#fig-q1-yoy-nbhd .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-1.png){#fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-2.png){#fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nTotal homes permitted in Q1 by neighbourhood type, 2009–2026\n:::\n\n\n## Projecting 2026 from Q1 data\n\nIf we take Q1 as an early signal for the full year, @fig-annualized-units shows the historical full-year units added by project type, with 2026 projected from Q1 using the 4.6× adjustment.\n\nWe can see a projected dip from the high level of 2025, though 2026 would still be a strong year by historical standards.\nWe'll have to wait and see, a handful of large apartment projects could significantly move the needle on the total.\n\n\n::: {#fig-annualized-units .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-units-1.png){#fig-annualized-units-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-units-2.png){#fig-annualized-units-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nTotal homes permitted by project type, 2009–2025 (full year) and 2026 (projected from Q1)\n:::\n\n\n@fig-annualized-nbhd breaks the same projection down by neighbourhood type.\nWe can see that we are projected for another record year in mature neighbourhoods, once again driven by the 5-8 unit rowhome category.\n2025 was not a blip: when given the option, a lot of people want to live more centrally, even if it means living in a rowhome instead of a detached house.\nWhy wouldn't they? They are close to transit, with more mature trees, more businesses within walking distance, and better access to jobs. Many also sit in neighbourhoods with more amenities and room in schools.\nMoreover, according to a [report to Edmonton City Council on February 17](https://pub-edmonton.escribemeetings.com/Meeting.aspx?Id=213d47bf-00f0-44be-9efe-3598ae1b6ba4&Agenda=Agenda&lang=English&Item=45&Tab=attachments), 50% of units in rowhomes are over 1,000 square feet, making them a great option for families.\nThe myth that everyone wants a detached house with a yard in the suburbs should be dead at this point.\nThe rowhome is the new attainable home for Edmontonian families who want to live in mature neighbourhoods, and the data shows that they are choosing it in large numbers when given the option.\n\n\n::: {#fig-annualized-nbhd .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-nbhd-1.png){#fig-annualized-nbhd-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-nbhd-2.png){#fig-annualized-nbhd-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nHomes permitted by neighbourhood type, 2009–2025 (full year) and 2026 (projected from Q1)\n:::\n\n\n## Top neighbourhoods for RS infill\n\nWhere is the infill actually happening? And how does the level of activity compare to the total number of properties in each neighbourhood?\n\n@tbl-rs-nbhd-type shows the Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS Zone permit activity by neighbourhood type, compared to the total number of RS-zoned properties. Even in Q1, the share of properties being redeveloped is tiny.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-rs-nbhd-type .cell tbl-cap='RS Zone 5–8 unit permits vs total properties by neighbourhood type, Q1 2026'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
RS Zone intensity by neighbourhood type
Q1 2026, and projected 2026
Neighbourhood type\n
Q1 2026
\n 		RS-zoned properties\n
Projected 2026 (Q1 ×4.6)
\n
PermitsHomes added% redevelopedPermitsHomes added% redeveloped
Mature896670.11%78,5514093,0680.52%
Between mature and Henday2140.00%64,2799640.01%
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n@tbl-top-neighbourhoods shows the top neighbourhoods by Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS permit volume. These are the neighbourhoods where ZBR's effects are most visible right now. But even in these neighbourhoods, the proportion of properties being redeveloped is small. This is incremental change, not wholesale transformation, which is exactly what ZBR was designed to enable.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-top-neighbourhoods .cell .column-page tbl-cap='Top neighbourhoods by Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS permits'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Top neighbourhoods by Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS permits
Q1 2026 building permits
NeighbourhoodPermitsRS properties% redevelopedHomes addedPopulation 2021Population 1971Pop. change
Glenwood79470.7%554,9605,650−12.2%
High Park76151.1%561,4802,545−41.8%
King Edward Park61,4560.4%414,8206,310−23.6%
Calder41,2740.3%304,4555,325−16.3%
Holyrood41,0810.4%303,2005,390−40.6%
Strathearn46230.6%282,4453,410−28.3%
West Jasper Place45670.7%322,8852,925−1.4%
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\nFor comparison, @tbl-selected-neighbourhoods shows the same statistics for a hand-picked set of neighbourhoods that have been prominent in debates about RS Zone infill.\nIf one permit for a 5-8 unit rowhome in Q1 would \"destroy\" the character of neighbourhoods like Crestwood, one would wonder how fragile the character was to begin with.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-selected-neighbourhoods .cell .column-page tbl-cap='Selected neighbourhood 5–8 unit RS profiles, Q1 2026'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Selected neighbourhood 5–8 unit RS profiles
Q1 2026 building permits
NeighbourhoodPermitsRS properties% redevelopedHomes addedPopulation 2021Population 1971Pop. change
Belgravia07020.0%02,2202,940−24.5%
Britannia Youngstown28900.2%164,3504,590−5.2%
Crestwood18590.1%62,4153,445−29.9%
Glenwood79470.7%554,9605,650−12.2%
Grovenor08830.0%02,5853,100−16.6%
Mckernan18810.1%82,5802,840−9.2%
Parkview11,3840.1%73,3755,735−41.2%
Westmount11,1090.1%86,1657,450−17.2%
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n@tbl-cumulative-neighbourhoods is an interactive table with cumulative 2024 + 2025 + Q1 2026 activity for all neighbourhoods. You can search for your neighbourhood, or sort by any column.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-cumulative-neighbourhoods .cell .column-page tbl-cap='Cumulative RS infill by neighbourhood, 2024–Q1 2026 (interactive)'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n
Cumulative 5–8 unit RS permits by neighbourhood
\n
2024 + 2025 + Q1 2026 building permits
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n## The eight-unit concentration\n\nIn 2025, projects with exactly eight units dominated the Fiveplex to Eightplex category in the RS Zone, a direct consequence of the eight-unit cap. Unlike the [previous analysis](../../2025/real-rs-story/index.qmd), which focused on 5–8 unit projects, @tbl-unit-breakdown covers all RS Zone permits from 1 to 8 units. We can see the most common unit counts are 1, 2, 4, and 8. However, the single biggest driver is the 8 unit rowhomes, providing around half of small-scale homes in mature RS-zoned neighbourhoods.\n\nGiven that 8-unit projects account for roughly half the small-scale supply, I continue to be glad that City Council chose not to reduce the number of units permitted to 6.\nThis is an evidence-backed choice that will pay dividends for years to come.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-unit-breakdown .cell tbl-cap='RS Zone 1-8 unit permits by exact unit count, Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
RS Zone: permits by unit count
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026
Units per permitPermits (Q1 2025)Homes (Q1 2025)Permits (Q1 2026)Homes (Q1 2026)
163635151
233662040
32626
43012027108
50015
611661378
721418126
84032059472
sum181655191886
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n## Building close to transit\n\n2025 set a record for the proportion of homes permitted within 800m of transit. Is that trend continuing in 2026? @fig-ecdf-transit compares the cumulative distribution of Q1 homes by distance from the nearest LRT stop, across recent years.\nOnce again, we are on track for a record year for building homes near transit.\nWithin 800m of transit, the cumulative share of homes is 38% in Q1 2026, compared to 30% in 2025.\nThe line for 2026 is above and to the left of the line for 2025, meaning homes are being built overall closer to transit in Q1 2026 than in 2025.\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Cumulative distribution of Q1 homes by distance from nearest LRT stop](index_files/figure-html/fig-ecdf-transit-1.png){#fig-ecdf-transit width=672}\n:::\n:::\n\n\nIf you are a map kind of person, @fig-rowhome-lrt-dist-map shows that the 5-8 unit rowhomes continue to trace the path of the LRT.\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Map of Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS Zone permits relative to LRT](index_files/figure-html/fig-rowhome-lrt-dist-map-1.png){#fig-rowhome-lrt-dist-map width=672}\n:::\n:::\n\n\n## Conclusions\n\n2026 is shaping up to be another strong year for housing supply in Edmonton.\nWe are building more homes in mature neighbourhoods, more types of homes, more homes near transit, and an overall higher number of homes than historical norms.\nThe RS Zone continues to be a key part of this story, with the 5-8 unit rowhome category leading the way in mature neighbourhoods. The data continues to show that when given the option, people choose to live in more central locations, even if not in a single-detached home.\n\nWe're already seeing the effects of increased housing supply in Edmonton over the past two years. Rents are coming down and landlords are offering incentives. With even more supply on the way, especially in mature neighbourhoods, I am excited about the potential for more affordable, transit-accessible housing options for Edmontonian families in the years to come.\n\nThe data continues to make the case for the RS Zone. Every quarter of data at this pace is another argument for keeping, and strengthening, the policies that are producing these results. If you'd like to help advocate for more housing choice in Edmonton, consider joining [Grow Together Edmonton](https://www.growtogetheryeg.com/).", + "markdown": "---\ntitle: \"2026 Q1 Edmonton building permit report\"\ndate: \"2026-04-16\"\nauthor: \"Jacob Dawang\"\ncategories: [housing, edmonton, zoning]\ndescription: \"A first look at 2026 building permits through Q1, tracking whether Edmonton will continue the record-breaking momentum of 2025.\"\nlink-external-newwindow: true\nlink-external-icon: false\nexecute:\n cache: false\n---\n\n2025 was a [banner year for Edmonton housing](../zbr-two-year-review/index.qmd). We permitted over 17,500 homes, a record, found the missing middle, and built closer to transit than ever before. The question now is whether 2026 will continue that momentum, or whether 2025 was a one-time peak.\n\nWith Q1 2026 data in hand, we can take a first look. In the rest of this post, I compare Q1 2026 permits year-over-year against prior Q1s, project what a full 2026 might look like if this pace holds, look at which neighbourhoods are seeing the most RS Zone infill, and check whether Edmonton is continuing to build close to transit.\n\n## Key facts\n\n\n\n- Edmonton issued building permits for **2,844** homes in Q1 2026. Annualized, that projects to roughly **13,082** homes for the full year.\n\n- Q1 2026 is **13.2% lower** than Q1 2025, when 3,277 homes were permitted.\n\n- **Fiveplex to Eightplex** projects led all categories by homes added in Q1 2026.\n\n- **38%** of homes were permitted within 800m of an existing or under-construction LRT stop, compared to 30% in 2025 (full year).\n\n## Data\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n\n:::\n\n\nEdmonton's [general building permit data](https://data.edmonton.ca/Urban-Planning-Economy/General-Building-Permits/24uj-dj8v/about_data) tracks building permits since 2009, with columns for building type, work type, location, units added, and more. The 2026 data was downloaded on April 14, 2026, and filtered to Q1 (January through March) to exclude incomplete April data.\n\nEdmonton's [property assessment data](https://data.edmonton.ca/City-Administration/Property-Assessment-Data-Current-Calendar-Year-/q7d6-ambg/about_data) provides one row per property with zoning and neighbourhood information, used to calculate how many RS-zoned properties exist per neighbourhood.\n\nFor background on the RS Zone and ZBR, see the [two-year review post](../zbr-two-year-review/index.qmd).\n\nI want to project 2026 total numbers, but we only have Q1 data so far. \nSimilar to my [previous post in mid-2025](../../2025/real-rs-story/index.qmd), I estimate an annualization multiplier from historical data. For each year from 2009 to 2025, I calculate the ratio of full-year units to Q1 units, and use the median as the multiplier.\nAny figure that shows 2026 projected numbers uses this simple adjustment.\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Historical ratio of full-year to Q1 residential building permit units](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-multiplier-1.png){#fig-q1-multiplier width=672}\n:::\n:::\n\n\nThe median Q1 multiplier is **4.6×**, as shown in @fig-q1-multiplier, meaning a full year typically produces 4.6 times the homes permitted in Q1 alone. All 2026 projections in this post use this multiplier.\n\n## Year-over-year Q1 comparison\n\nThe most direct way to compare Q1 2026 to prior years is to look at Q1 data across all years, stripping out seasonality entirely. @fig-q1-yoy-units shows units added in Q1 for each year since 2009, broken down by project type.\n2026 is off to a strong start, with a steady number of homes permitted in Q1.\nSimilar to 2025, we continue to see steady growth of the 5-8 unit category, which is firmly established as an important part of Edmonton's housing supply.\n\n\n::: {#fig-q1-yoy-units .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-units-1.png){#fig-q1-yoy-units-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-units-2.png){#fig-q1-yoy-units-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nTotal homes permitted in Q1 by project type, 2009–2026\n:::\n\n\n@fig-q1-yoy-permits shows the same Q1 data as raw permit counts rather than units, a complementary view for understanding how many discrete projects are driving each category.\n\n\n::: {#fig-q1-yoy-permits .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-permits-1.png){#fig-q1-yoy-permits-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-permits-2.png){#fig-q1-yoy-permits-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nNumber of building permits issued in Q1 by project type, 2009–2026\n:::\n\n\nLooking at the number of homes by neighbourhood type, @fig-q1-yoy-nbhd shows continued historical levels of supply in mature neighbourhoods, driven by the 5-8 unit rowhome.\nOutside the Henday, building permits have gone down in this Q1, though that could be due to the volatility of the large apartment category.\n\n\n::: {#fig-q1-yoy-nbhd .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-1.png){#fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-2.png){#fig-q1-yoy-nbhd-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nTotal homes permitted in Q1 by neighbourhood type, 2009–2026\n:::\n\n\n## Projecting 2026 from Q1 data\n\nIf we take Q1 as an early signal for the full year, @fig-annualized-units shows the historical full-year units added by project type, with 2026 projected from Q1 using the 4.6× adjustment.\n\nWe can see a projected dip from the high level of 2025, though 2026 would still be a strong year by historical standards.\nWe'll have to wait and see, a handful of large apartment projects could significantly move the needle on the total.\n\n\n::: {#fig-annualized-units .cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-units-1.png){#fig-annualized-units-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-units-2.png){#fig-annualized-units-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nTotal homes permitted by project type, 2009–2025 (full year) and 2026 (projected from Q1)\n:::\n\n\n@fig-annualized-nbhd breaks the same projection down by neighbourhood type.\nWe can see that we are projected for another record year in mature neighbourhoods, once again driven by the 5-8 unit rowhome category.\n2025 was not a blip: when given the option, a lot of people want to live more centrally, even if it means living in a rowhome instead of a detached house.\nWhy wouldn't they? They are close to transit, with more mature trees, more businesses within walking distance, and better access to jobs. Many also sit in neighbourhoods with more amenities and room in schools.\nMoreover, according to a [report to Edmonton City Council on February 17](https://pub-edmonton.escribemeetings.com/Meeting.aspx?Id=213d47bf-00f0-44be-9efe-3598ae1b6ba4&Agenda=Agenda&lang=English&Item=45&Tab=attachments), 50% of units in rowhomes are over 1,000 square feet, making them a great option for families.\nThe myth that everyone wants a detached house with a yard in the suburbs should be dead at this point.\nThe rowhome is the new attainable home for Edmontonian families who want to live in mature neighbourhoods, and the data shows that they are choosing it in large numbers when given the option.\n\n\n::: {#fig-annualized-nbhd .cell .preview-image}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Line plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-nbhd-1.png){#fig-annualized-nbhd-1 width=672}\n:::\n\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Area plot](index_files/figure-html/fig-annualized-nbhd-2.png){#fig-annualized-nbhd-2 width=672}\n:::\n\nHomes permitted by neighbourhood type, 2009–2025 (full year) and 2026 (projected from Q1)\n:::\n\n\n## Top neighbourhoods for RS infill\n\nWhere is the infill actually happening? And how does the level of activity compare to the total number of properties in each neighbourhood?\n\n@tbl-rs-nbhd-type shows the Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS Zone permit activity by neighbourhood type, compared to the total number of RS-zoned properties. Even in Q1, the share of properties being redeveloped is tiny.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-rs-nbhd-type .cell tbl-cap='RS Zone 5–8 unit permits vs total properties by neighbourhood type, Q1 2026'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
RS Zone intensity by neighbourhood type
Q1 2026, and projected 2026
Neighbourhood type\n
Q1 2026
\n 		RS-zoned properties\n
Projected 2026 (Q1 ×4.6)
\n
PermitsHomes added% redevelopedPermitsHomes added% redeveloped
Mature896670.11%78,5514093,0680.52%
Between mature and Henday2140.00%64,2799640.01%
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n@tbl-top-neighbourhoods shows the top neighbourhoods by Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS permit volume. These are the neighbourhoods where ZBR's effects are most visible right now. But even in these neighbourhoods, the proportion of properties being redeveloped is small. This is incremental change, not wholesale transformation, which is exactly what ZBR was designed to enable.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-top-neighbourhoods .cell .column-page tbl-cap='Top neighbourhoods by Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS permits'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Top neighbourhoods by Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS permits
Q1 2026 building permits
NeighbourhoodPermitsRS properties% redevelopedHomes addedPopulation 2021Population 1971Pop. change
Glenwood79470.7%554,9605,650−12.2%
High Park76151.1%561,4802,545−41.8%
King Edward Park61,4560.4%414,8206,310−23.6%
Calder41,2740.3%304,4555,325−16.3%
Holyrood41,0810.4%303,2005,390−40.6%
Strathearn46230.6%282,4453,410−28.3%
West Jasper Place45670.7%322,8852,925−1.4%
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\nFor comparison, @tbl-selected-neighbourhoods shows the same statistics for a hand-picked set of neighbourhoods that have been prominent in debates about RS Zone infill.\nIf one permit for a 5-8 unit rowhome in Q1 would \"destroy\" the character of neighbourhoods like Crestwood, one would wonder how fragile the character was to begin with.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-selected-neighbourhoods .cell .column-page tbl-cap='Selected neighbourhood 5–8 unit RS profiles, Q1 2026'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Selected neighbourhood 5–8 unit RS profiles
Q1 2026 building permits
NeighbourhoodPermitsRS properties% redevelopedHomes addedPopulation 2021Population 1971Pop. change
Belgravia07020.0%02,2202,940−24.5%
Britannia Youngstown28900.2%164,3504,590−5.2%
Crestwood18590.1%62,4153,445−29.9%
Glenwood79470.7%554,9605,650−12.2%
Grovenor08830.0%02,5853,100−16.6%
Mckernan18810.1%82,5802,840−9.2%
Parkview11,3840.1%73,3755,735−41.2%
Westmount11,1090.1%86,1657,450−17.2%
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n@tbl-cumulative-neighbourhoods is an interactive table with cumulative 2024 + 2025 + Q1 2026 activity for all neighbourhoods. You can search for your neighbourhood, or sort by any column.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-cumulative-neighbourhoods .cell .column-page tbl-cap='Cumulative RS infill by neighbourhood, 2024–Q1 2026 (interactive)'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n
\n
Cumulative 5–8 unit RS permits by neighbourhood
\n
2024 + 2025 + Q1 2026 building permits
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n## The eight-unit concentration\n\nIn 2025, projects with exactly eight units dominated the Fiveplex to Eightplex category in the RS Zone, a direct consequence of the eight-unit cap. Unlike the [previous analysis](../../2025/real-rs-story/index.qmd), which focused on 5–8 unit projects, @tbl-unit-breakdown covers all RS Zone permits from 1 to 8 units. We can see the most common unit counts are 1, 2, 4, and 8. However, the single biggest driver is the 8 unit rowhomes, providing around half of small-scale homes in mature RS-zoned neighbourhoods.\n\nGiven that 8-unit projects account for roughly half the small-scale supply, I continue to be glad that City Council chose not to reduce the number of units permitted to 6.\nThis is an evidence-backed choice that will pay dividends for years to come.\n\n\n::: {#tbl-unit-breakdown .cell tbl-cap='RS Zone 1-8 unit permits by exact unit count, Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026'}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n\n```{=html}\n
\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n
RS Zone: permits by unit count
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026
Units per permitPermits (Q1 2025)Homes (Q1 2025)Permits (Q1 2026)Homes (Q1 2026)
163635151
233662040
32626
43012027108
50015
611661378
721418126
84032059472
sum181655191886
Jacob Dawang, City of Edmonton Open Data
\n
\n```\n\n:::\n:::\n\n\n## Building close to transit\n\n2025 set a record for the proportion of homes permitted within 800m of transit. Is that trend continuing in 2026? @fig-ecdf-transit compares the cumulative distribution of Q1 homes by distance from the nearest LRT stop, across recent years.\nOnce again, we are on track for a record year for building homes near transit.\nWithin 800m of transit, the cumulative share of homes is 38% in Q1 2026, compared to 30% in 2025.\nThe line for 2026 is above and to the left of the line for 2025, meaning homes are being built overall closer to transit in Q1 2026 than in 2025.\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Cumulative distribution of Q1 homes by distance from nearest LRT stop](index_files/figure-html/fig-ecdf-transit-1.png){#fig-ecdf-transit width=672}\n:::\n:::\n\n\nIf you are a map kind of person, @fig-rowhome-lrt-dist-map shows that the 5-8 unit rowhomes continue to trace the path of the LRT.\n\n\n::: {.cell}\n::: {.cell-output-display}\n![Map of Q1 2026 5–8 unit RS Zone permits relative to LRT](index_files/figure-html/fig-rowhome-lrt-dist-map-1.png){#fig-rowhome-lrt-dist-map width=672}\n:::\n:::\n\n\n## Conclusions\n\n2026 is shaping up to be another strong year for housing supply in Edmonton.\nWe are building more homes in mature neighbourhoods, more types of homes, more homes near transit, and an overall higher number of homes than historical norms.\nThe RS Zone continues to be a key part of this story, with the 5-8 unit rowhome category leading the way in mature neighbourhoods. The data continues to show that when given the option, people choose to live in more central locations, even if not in a single-detached home.\n\nWe're already seeing the effects of increased housing supply in Edmonton over the past two years. Rents are coming down and landlords are offering incentives. With even more supply on the way, especially in mature neighbourhoods, I am excited about the potential for more affordable, transit-accessible housing options for Edmontonian families in the years to come.\n\nThe data continues to make the case for the RS Zone. Every quarter of data at this pace is another argument for keeping, and strengthening, the policies that are producing these results. If you'd like to help advocate for more housing choice in Edmonton, consider joining [Grow Together Edmonton](https://www.growtogetheryeg.com/).", "supporting": [ "index_files" ], diff --git a/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index.qmd b/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index.qmd index a53af25..722e525 100644 --- a/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index.qmd +++ b/blog/2026/q1-building-permits/index.qmd @@ -429,6 +429,7 @@ The rowhome is the new attainable home for Edmontonian families who want to live #| label: fig-annualized-nbhd #| fig-cap: "Homes permitted by neighbourhood type, 2009–2025 (full year) and 2026 (projected from Q1)" #| fig-subcap: ["Line plot", "Area plot"] +#| classes: preview-image annual_nbhd <- bp |> st_drop_geometry() |> filter(year < 2026, !is.na(neighbourhood_type)) |>