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feat: grade liquidity share per PSA grade #96

Description

@hjacque

Goal

For each Product, determine how liquid each PSA Grade is — both relative to the card's own grade distribution and in absolute terms — so the Opportunity Score can distinguish between a real buying opportunity and a deal on a grade nobody actually trades.

Concept

Grade Liquidity Share: the fraction of a Product's total eBay sold volume at a specific PSA Grade over the Sold Comp Window.

Two dimensions both matter:

  • Relative share — how does this grade's volume compare to the card's own distribution? (e.g. PSA 10 = 85% of volume vs PSA 7 = 2%)
  • Absolute floor — a card with 3 total sales spread across grades is not liquid at any grade, regardless of distribution

Examples

Card PSA 10 share PSA 7 share Signal
High-rarity card 25% 20% Volume distributed → any grade is tradeable
Mid-rarity card 85% 2% Volume concentrated → PSA 7 is illiquid, avoid
Any card with ≤ N total sales Absolute floor not met → no grade is liquid

Design notes

  • Exact thresholds (absolute floor count, share threshold for "liquid" vs "thin" vs "illiquid") require data calibration from real eBay sold history — do not hardcode
  • Output: a liquidity label or score per grade (liquid / thin / illiquid) derived from the two dimensions above
  • Feeds into the Opportunity Score in feat: fair value range per card #91 — a deal on an illiquid grade is discounted
  • Separate signal from the Fair Value Range itself — liquidity affects confidence in the opportunity, not the price band

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