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Verification: AIEQ — EquBot / IBM Watson #1

Description

@emceeKim

R1 — Recommender (model/engine + vendor)

EquBot / IBM Watson (Amplify AIEQ)

R2 — Asset / ticker

AIEQ — Amplify AI Powered Equity ETF

R3 — Recommendation date (YYYY-MM-DD)

2017-10-17

R4 — Subject type

ai-managed-fund (Template F)

R5 — Primary source URL

https://stockanalysis.com/etf/aieq/

A1 — Axis 1 Data Source

Fail

A1e — Axis 1 evidence (quote + source location)

Holdings disclosed daily, but per-pick data sources are not cited; inputs described only in aggregate. No primary/tier classification.

A2 — Axis 2 Reasoning Logic

Fail

A2e — Axis 2 evidence

Per-pick rationale is a proprietary black box; no premise-to-conclusion argument is published to verify.

A3 — Axis 3 Counter-Scenario

Fail

A3e — Axis 3 evidence

No downside scenarios or weighted probabilities disclosed.

A4 — Axis 4 Timing

Fail

A4e — Axis 4 evidence

Open-ended fund; no entry window or defined horizon — continuous rebalancing.

A5 — Axis 5 Accuracy / Hallucination

Pass

A5e — Axis 5 evidence

All 162 holdings are real, publicly disclosed, verifiable securities (top-10 confirmed via stockanalysis.com 2026-04-13). No fabricated tickers or figures.

A5x — Axis 5 failed due to NON-EXISTENT source/ticker/figure?

No

A6 — Axis 6 Causal Chain

Fail

A6e — Axis 6 evidence

No per-pick sources or stated conclusions are published; source-to-conclusion linkage is unverifiable.

C1 — Macro coherence

Missing

C2 — Micro coherence

Missing

O1 — Phase

confirmed (D+90 / fund 1y+)

O2 — Return at D+90 (or fund annualized), % — blank if provisional

9.09

O3 — Excess vs benchmark, pp — blank if provisional

-7.59

O4 — Stop-loss breached by D+90?

No / N-A

O5 — Benchmark

SPY (S&P 500)

O6 — Outcome notes (mdd, horizon, correlation, cost drag, …)

annualized +9.09%/yr since inception (5Y +6.56%/yr); excess vs SPY -7.59pp/yr (5Y common window, confirmed; 1Y -5.76pp); MDD -24.19%; correlation to SPY 0.96; active share low (closet-index); cost drag +0.66pp/yr (0.75% vs 0.09%); horizon since 2017-10-17 (8.5y live track record).

E1 — Evaluator conflict of interest

no conflict

S1 — Public summary (will be shown on the site)

L1 review of EquBot/IBM Watson's AIEQ — a real, publicly traded AI-managed equity ETF (not MC AI Labs'). By the AIRVS disclosure-and-evidence bar it scores Unreliable: only 1 of 6 process axes pass (the AI never publishes per-pick reasoning, sources, downside cases, or a defined horizon), and over 8.5 years it has trailed a simple S&P 500 index fund (SPY) while charging 0.75-0.80%. FAIRNESS NOTE: "Unreliable" here measures transparency/verifiability, NOT that AIEQ is a bad fund — a quantitative model legitimately keeps its picks' rationale proprietary, which structurally fails disclosure axes. The benchmark underperformance (-7.59pp/yr vs SPY, 5Y common window) is a separate, independently measured fact. Verdict derived mechanically via MC AI Labs decision-rule v1.0.0 (frozen); Annex A-F (AI-managed-fund variant, AIRVS v1.1) applied — most queryable-LLM items are structurally N/A and do not flip Axis 5 (holdings verified real). Published under AIRVS v1.2.0.

L1 confirmation

  • This is an EXTERNAL (L1) recommendation — not my own (self-grading L2 is out of scope).

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