diff --git a/vm-migration/src/progress.rs b/vm-migration/src/progress.rs
index 8a5083068d..c5babdad92 100644
--- a/vm-migration/src/progress.rs
+++ b/vm-migration/src/progress.rs
@@ -76,8 +76,12 @@ pub struct MemoryTransmissionInfo {
     Clone, Debug, PartialOrd, Ord, PartialEq, Eq, Hash, serde::Serialize, serde::Deserialize,
 )]
 pub enum MigrationStateOngoingPhase {
-    /// The migration starts. Handshake and transfer of VM config.
+    /// The migration process is initiated. No checks or connections are
+    /// established yet.
     Starting,
+    /// The initial connection is established and the migration protocol
+    /// handshake succeeded.
+    Started,
     /// Transfer of memory FDs.
     ///
     /// Only used for local migrations.
@@ -96,6 +100,7 @@ impl Display for MigrationStateOngoingPhase {
     fn fmt(&self, f: &mut fmt::Formatter<'_>) -> fmt::Result {
         match self {
             Self::Starting => write!(f, "starting"),
+            Self::Started => write!(f, "started"),
             Self::MemoryFds => write!(f, "memory FDs"),
             Self::MemoryPrecopy => write!(f, "memory (precopy)"),
             Self::Completing => write!(f, "completing"),
diff --git a/vmm/src/lib.rs b/vmm/src/lib.rs
index c94eee40ea..0bb2f65301 100644
--- a/vmm/src/lib.rs
+++ b/vmm/src/lib.rs
@@ -1897,6 +1897,16 @@ impl Vmm {
             MigratableError::MigrateSend(anyhow!("Error starting migration (got bad response)")),
         )?;
 
+        // Signal that the migration connection has been established. Management
+        // software can use this to distinguish short send/receive races from a
+        // real migration startup failure.
+        {
+            let mut lock = MIGRATION_PROGRESS_SNAPSHOT.lock().unwrap();
+            lock.as_mut()
+                .expect("live migration should be ongoing")
+                .update(MigrationStateOngoingPhase::Started, None, None, None);
+        }
+
         return_if_cancelled_cb(&mut socket)?;
 
         // Send config