Armoury Crate Loot

[jmcmorris]

I'm starting work on Limbus and while I was looking at the loot tables I noticed something I advocated for on Eden and we ended up going that route. That is in the loot tables using our best judgement to assign droprates that are better numbers.

FFXI was developed and designed by people and as people we like to choose nice even numbers for things. If we have four items that we want roughly even split between 1000 we'll pick 250, 250, 250, 250 and generally not 273, 241, 234, 252. I understand that these numbers are derived from whatever data we can find and they are a great starting point. However, we must accept that the data is fallible and sometimes incredibly limited. Editing data on ffxiclopedia.com was not straightforward and easily error prone.

What this means in practice is when we implement a loot table we look at the data.

1. Remove any severe outliers that do have clear evidence or substantial data.
2. Round numbers to what makes sense according to raw data and anecdotes
3. Factor in balance overall. An example, according to raw data some Limbus materials have a higher drop rate but I'm fairly confident that SE would make them completely even.

How do you guys feel about this?

[TeoTwawki]

I suspect that SE used similar abundance tier buckets like with harvesting and drop rates (when they released the TH charting, I thought "gosh that looks like the helm data")

[jmcmorris]

I think I'm a little bit out of the loop on this. Could you drop some links please? :)

[TeoTwawki]

I think I'm a little bit out of the loop on this. Could you drop some links please? :)

official info from SE, copied to our wiki for reference: https://github.com/LandSandBoat/server/wiki/TH-chart

[jmcmorris]

Thanks! I remember this now.

[TeoTwawki]

for grouped drops, TH doesn't apply if the group was already 100% so they don't follow this chart exactly in those cases, but even then if you look at how harvesting/mining/logging/excavation are on the old wiki, they avoided trying to say a raw number and just put down a ration of how rare or common it was, because it was known there'd be categories exactly like this (SE spilled the beans yrs ago on helm)

[jmcmorris]

Yes! I full agree with that. It is so much easier as a designer to think on terms of "Common" vs "Rare" rather than 300 vs 5.

[WinterSolstice8]

Like Dynamis, Limbus had the toau/cop jobs items added later so depending on when the data was collected it could be biased.

That said it was very obvious that in dynamis that the extra relic armor for new jobs was a secondary drop slot, so it's not entirely impossible that limbus did something similar. I think your sentiment is correct in that we should try to round to reasonable numbers backed by data, given that we know how treasure hunter works now it makes it a lot easier to guess what a drop rate really is.

Also anecdotal but I do remember specific floors having higher drop rates for certain jobs materials in Limbus, I don't know how the data was collected but it could be biased towards running a certain area repeatedly

[jmcmorris]

I've been thinking about this more and had the thought that it may be very similar to something I did for my own RPG commercial game project. When you group a list of items together that you want to pick one of it is much easier to think of their drops relative to one another rather than their individual drop rates. Here is a proposal for that.

Loot tables use a Likelihood table that might look like this.

Likelihood = {
    ExtremelyLow = 2,
    VeryLow = 10,
    Low = 30,
    Normal = 50,
    High = 70,
    VeryHigh = 100,
    ExtremelyHigh = 140,
}

Each item in the loot table will have a chance of dropping assigned a likelihood. The total values are summed and used as weights (basic weighted randomness). This gives the designer/developer a lot of power while still keeping it very easy to digest. As a trial/exercise I took two popular BCNMs with lots of data points and put this concept to the test. I left the droprate in and added the percentage the item would have given the assigned chance.

-- Under Observation
{
    { itemid =     0, droprate = 910, chance = Likelihood.VeryHigh }, -- Nothing (90.9%)
    { itemid = 13056, droprate =  90, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Peacock Charm (9.1%)
},

{
    { itemid =     0, droprate = 467, chance = Likelihood.High }, -- Nothing (43.7%)
    { itemid = 18086, droprate =  48, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Behourd Lance (6.2%)
    { itemid = 18046, droprate =  61, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Mutilator (6.2%)
    { itemid = 18210, droprate =  46, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Raifu (6.2%)
    { itemid = 15286, droprate = 302, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Tilt Belt (31.2%)
    { itemid = 18350, droprate =  76, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Tourney Patas (6.2%)
},

{
    { itemid =     0, droprate = 413, chance = Likelihood.High }, -- Nothing (40.7%)
    { itemid = 17696, droprate =  42, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Buzzard Tuck (5.8%)
    { itemid = 17936, droprate =  77, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- De Saintres Axe (5.8%)
    { itemid = 17693, droprate =  73, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Grudge Sword (5.8%)
    { itemid = 15287, droprate = 258, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Mantra Belt (29.1%)
    { itemid =  4717, droprate =  68, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Scroll Of Refresh (5.8%)
    { itemid =  4947, droprate =  55, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Scroll Of Utsusemi Ni (5.8%)
    { itemid =  4858, droprate =  14, chance = Likelihood.UltraLow }, -- Scroll Of Ice Spikes (1.2%)
},

{
    { itemid = 4858, droprate = 114, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Scroll Of Ice Spikes (11.4%)
    { itemid = 4717, droprate = 174, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Scroll Of Refresh (11.4%)
    { itemid = 4947, droprate = 138, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Scroll Of Utsusemi Ni (11.4%)
    { itemid =  769, droprate =  16, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Red Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  770, droprate =  17, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Blue Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  771, droprate =  17, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Yellow Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  772, droprate =  18, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Green Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  773, droprate =  17, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Translucent Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  774, droprate =  16, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Purple Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  775, droprate =  18, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Black Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  776, droprate =  16, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- White Rock (2.3%)
    { itemid =  749, droprate = 102, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Mythril Beastcoin (11.4%)
    { itemid =  748, droprate = 120, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Gold Beastcoin (11.4%)
    { itemid =  699, droprate =  22, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Oak Log (2.3%)
    { itemid =  811, droprate =  18, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Ametrine (2.3%)
    { itemid =  793, droprate =  18, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Black Pearl (2.3%)
    { itemid =  790, droprate =  20, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Garnet (2.3%)
    { itemid =  808, droprate =  19, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Goshenite (2.3%)
    { itemid =  792, droprate =  21, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Pearl (2.3%)
    { itemid =  788, droprate =  35, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Peridot (2.3%)
    { itemid =  815, droprate =  17, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Sphene (2.3%)
    { itemid =  798, droprate =  23, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Turquoise (2.3%)
    { itemid = 4172, droprate =  21, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Reraiser (2.3%)
    { itemid = 4174, droprate =  16, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Vile Elixir (2.3%)
},

{
    { itemid = 4896, droprate = 116, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Fire Spirit Pact (11.1%)
    { itemid = 4874, droprate = 113, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Scroll Of Absorb-str (11.1%)
    { itemid = 4751, droprate = 137, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Scroll Of Erase (11.1%)
    { itemid = 4858, droprate =  67, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Scroll Of Ice Spikes (6.7%)
    { itemid = 4714, droprate =  99, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Scroll Of Phalanx (6.7%)
    { itemid =  811, droprate =  58, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Ametrine (6.7%)
    { itemid =  793, droprate =  52, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Black Pearl (6.7%)
    { itemid =  790, droprate =  51, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Garnet (6.7%)
    { itemid =  808, droprate =  65, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Goshenite (6.7%)
    { itemid =  792, droprate =  61, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Pearl (6.7%)
    { itemid =  788, droprate =  63, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Peridot (6.7%)
    { itemid =  815, droprate =  55, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Sphene (6.7%)
    { itemid =  798, droprate =  62, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Turquoise (6.7%)
},

{
    { itemid = 939, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Hecteyes Eye (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 914, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Vial Of Mercury (100%)
},

-- Up In Arms

{
    { itemid = 65535, droprate = 1000, amount = 15000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Gil (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 793, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Black Pearl (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 792, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Pearl (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 792, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Pearl (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 1311, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Piece Of Oxblood (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 1311, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Piece Of Oxblood (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 1311, droprate = 1000, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Piece Of Oxblood (100%)
},

{
    { itemid = 14666, droprate = 447, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Teleport Ring Altep (50%)
    { itemid = 14662, droprate = 487, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Teleport Ring Dem (50%)
},

{
    { itemid = 13175, droprate = 494, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Ajari Bead Necklace (50%)
    { itemid = 13176, droprate = 449, chance = Likelihood.Normal }, -- Philomath Stole (50%)
},

{
    { itemid =  791, droprate =  51, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Aquamarine (5.5%)
    { itemid =  801, droprate =  32, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Chrysoberyl (5.5%)
    { itemid =  654, droprate =  39, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Darksteel Ingot (5.5%)
    { itemid =  702, droprate =  21, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Ebony Log (1.8%)
    { itemid = 4173, droprate =  32, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Hi-reraiser (5.5%)
    { itemid =  745, droprate =  55, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Gold Ingot (5.5%)
    { itemid =  784, droprate =  62, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Jadeite (5.5%)
    { itemid =  653, droprate =  81, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Mythril Ingot (5.5%)
    { itemid =  802, droprate =  56, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Moonstone (5.5%)
    { itemid =  797, droprate = 195, chance = Likelihood.High }, -- Painite (16.7%)
    { itemid =  652, droprate =  58, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Steel Ingot (5.5%)
    { itemid =  803, droprate =  38, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Sunstone (5.5%)
    { itemid =  773, droprate =  11, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Translucent Rock (1.8%)
    { itemid = 4175, droprate =  21, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Vile Elixir +1 (1.8%)
    { itemid =  771, droprate =  15, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Yellow Rock (1.8%)
    { itemid =  805, droprate =  26, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Zircon (1.8%)
    { itemid =  769, droprate =  21, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Red Rock (1.8%)
    { itemid =  700, droprate =  17, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Mahogany Log (1.8%)
    { itemid =  770, droprate =   9, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Blue Rock (1.8%)
    { itemid =  810, droprate =  62, chance = Likelihood.Low }, -- Fluorite (5.5%)
    { itemid =  774, droprate =  11, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Purple Rock (1.8%)
    { itemid =  775, droprate =  11, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Black Rock (1.8%)
    { itemid =  772, droprate =  11, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Green Rock (1.8%)
    { itemid =  776, droprate =   9, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- White Rock (1.8%)
},

{
    { itemid =     0, droprate =  932, chance = Likelihood.UltraHigh }, -- Nothing (92.1%)
    { itemid = 17440, droprate =   13, chance = Likelihood.UltraLow }, -- Kraken Club (1.3%)
    { itemid = 15185, droprate =   55, chance = Likelihood.VeryLow }, -- Walkure Mask (6.6%)
},

What do you guys think?

[cocosolos]

BCNM loot is already weighted and doesn't have to add up to 1000 (100%) so you could just replace droprate with tabled values to make it more readable. See loot rolling function.

[jmcmorris]

Well then! We are already half of the way there.

I was looking around for better table names and came across this table of "Kent's words of estimative probability" from the 60s. The values assigned are actually quite close to what I came up with. It is a bit of a stretch but someone at SE may have seen the same table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability