diff --git a/client/src/pages/ConsiliumLoopDetail.tsx b/client/src/pages/ConsiliumLoopDetail.tsx
index df698bf..b14ba87 100644
--- a/client/src/pages/ConsiliumLoopDetail.tsx
+++ b/client/src/pages/ConsiliumLoopDetail.tsx
@@ -2784,7 +2784,13 @@ export default function ConsiliumLoopDetail() {
   const terminal = isTerminalLoopState(loop.state);
   const canStart = loop.state === "pending";
   const canCancel = !terminal;
-  const canApprove = loop.state === "awaiting_merge";
+  // PUBLISH-FAILED: a dev round that errored WITHOUT producing a PR (push rejected,
+  // MR open failed) parks in awaiting_merge so the error is visible — but there is
+  // NOTHING to merge, so the approve gate must not render. Research loops (prRef
+  // null, NO error) keep their legitimate approve-and-continue gate.
+  const publishFailed =
+    loop.state === "awaiting_merge" && !loop.prRef && Boolean(loop.error);
+  const canApprove = loop.state === "awaiting_merge" && !publishFailed;
 
   // Develop hand-off (design §9): a verdict-terminal loop whose latest verdict
   // still carries action points may be promoted into a VISIBLE `developing`
@@ -3010,6 +3016,25 @@ export default function ConsiliumLoopDetail() {
           />
         )}
 
+        {/* PUBLISH-FAILED callout: the dev round finished but its push/MR was
+            rejected — nothing reached the forge, so there is no merge to approve
+            (the approve button is suppressed above). The round branch with the
+            commits is intact in the local repo. */}
+        {publishFailed && (
+          <div className="rounded-md border border-destructive/40 bg-destructive/5 p-3 text-sm">
+            <div className="flex items-center gap-2 font-medium text-destructive">
+              <AlertTriangle className="h-4 w-4 shrink-0" />
+              Publish failed — nothing to merge
+            </div>
+            <p className="mt-1 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">
+              The develop round completed its commits, but pushing the branch / opening
+              the MR was rejected (see the round error below). The round branch is
+              intact in the repo — fix the push blocker and re-run develop, or Finish
+              the loop.
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
         {/* Research report (Stage 3) — the researched outcome of a `research`
             loop, on the latest round. Rendered only when a report is present
             (repo-assessment loops render nothing here). */}
diff --git a/server/routes/consilium-loops.ts b/server/routes/consilium-loops.ts
index efe9ddb..4333997 100644
--- a/server/routes/consilium-loops.ts
+++ b/server/routes/consilium-loops.ts
@@ -374,6 +374,16 @@ export function registerConsiliumLoopRoutes(
       if (auth.loop.state !== "awaiting_merge") {
         return res.status(409).json({ error: "loop is not AWAITING_MERGE" });
       }
+      // PUBLISH-FAILED gate: a dev close-out that ERRORED without producing a PR
+      // (e.g. the push was rejected by a server-side policy) parks in awaiting_merge
+      // so the human sees the error — but there is NOTHING to merge, and approving
+      // would re-enter the loop as if the round had shipped. Research loops
+      // (prRef null, NO error) keep their legitimate approve-and-continue gate.
+      if (!auth.loop.prRef && auth.loop.error) {
+        return res
+          .status(409)
+          .json({ error: "nothing to merge — the develop round failed to publish (no PR)" });
+      }
       // M-3: the merged HEAD is read SERVER-side (never a client-supplied sha).
       const merged = await controller.onMergeApproved(auth.loop.id, "");
       if (!merged) return res.status(409).json({ error: "merge approval could not be applied" });
diff --git a/tests/integration/consilium/loop-routes.test.ts b/tests/integration/consilium/loop-routes.test.ts
index 7cc292c..468c83a 100644
--- a/tests/integration/consilium/loop-routes.test.ts
+++ b/tests/integration/consilium/loop-routes.test.ts
@@ -204,6 +204,22 @@ describe("consilium-loop routes", () => {
     expect(res.status).toBe(403);
   });
 
+  it("PUBLISH-FAILED: awaiting_merge with an error and NO prRef → 409 on merge-approved (nothing to merge)", async () => {
+    const created = await post("/api/consilium-loops", { groupId: ctx.group.id, repoPath: REPO_ROOT });
+    const id = created.body.id;
+    // A dev close-out whose push was rejected: error persisted, no PR produced.
+    await ctx.storage.updateLoop(id, {
+      state: "awaiting_merge",
+      headCommitAtReview: "abc1234",
+      prRef: null,
+      error: "push failed: remote rejected (pre-receive hook declined)",
+    });
+    ctx.setUser(MAINTAINER_USER); // pass the role gate — the publish gate must still 409
+    const res = await post(`/api/consilium-loops/${id}/merge-approved`);
+    expect(res.status).toBe(409);
+    expect(String(res.body.error)).toContain("failed to publish");
+  });
+
   it("B-2: maintainer (same identity) WITH visibility → 200 on merge-approved", async () => {
     const created = await post("/api/consilium-loops", { groupId: ctx.group.id, repoPath: REPO_ROOT });
     const id = created.body.id;